A YouGov poll of 1,170 U.S. registered voters between July 22 - 23, 2024 — conducted for the Times and SAY24, a joint project of Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale Universities — covers how voters assess Kamala Harris relative to Donald Trump and Joe Biden, the electorate's beliefs about gender bias, Harris' strength among Democrats, awareness of possible running mates, and Biden's decision to step aside.
Harris and Trump
- Trump leads Harris by 46% to 44% in likely voters' voting intention, with Kennedy at 4% and only 3% saying "not sure"
- Trump is well ahead in the share of registered voters who think each candidate says what they believe, rather than saying what people want to hear: 46% say Trump says what he believes while 30% say Harris says what she believes
- Trump also leads in the share who think each is a strong leader (61% vs. 49%)
- It's a draw on qualifications: 49% say each is qualified for the job
- More say Trump, the former president, is not qualified than say the same about Harris, the vice president (47% vs. 41%)
- Registered voters are almost evenly split on whether Trump is too old (45% yes, 47% no) and whether he is a threat to democracy (48% yes, 46% no)
Gender and the election
- 54% say the country is ready for a woman president; 30% say no
- That's down from 63% of registered voters who said yes in 2015, according to the May 9-11, 2015 Economist / YouGov Poll
- Registered voters expect — and present — challenges for Harris in her campaign to become the first woman president
- 53% hope for a woman to be president in the next 10 years while 22% say they don't
- 41% say about half or more of Americans wouldn't be willing to vote for a woman against a man if the two are equally qualified
- Some of those troubling numbers for Harris likely are driven by Trump voters rooting against any Democratic presidency, including Harris'. But many Democrats have doubts about the electorate: Only 77% say the country is ready to elect a woman president and 37% say about half or more of Americans wouldn't vote for an equally qualified woman
- Perhaps because of these fears, 35% of Democrats say Harris should choose a man as her running mate; only 6% want her to choose a woman
Harris and Biden
- Democrats overwhelmingly say Harris is more likely than Biden to beat Trump: 64% say Harris is more likely while 10% say Biden
- While Democrats are bullish, registered voters overall are torn over who would be more likely to beat Trump: 34% say Harris and 33% say Biden
- 53% of Democrats say they prefer Harris to Biden as the Democratic nominee, while 15% prefer Biden
- 69% see Harris as liberal, compared to 61% who say the same about Biden
- Among registered voters overall, Harris is viewed slightly more favorably than Biden is: 41% view her favorably and 51% unfavorably, compared to 39% and 54% for Biden
- Opinions of Harris already are largely formed, even though she has only now become the likely nominee: Exactly the same share of registered voters have neutral (6%) views of Biden and Harris, and 1% say "don't know" when asked for an opinion about each one
The Democratic nomination
- Harris is the overwhelming favorite among Democrats for the nomination: 77% say she is the best choice to replace Biden, and none of the other five people offered as options gets more than 5%
- Among six prominent Democrats who have been plausible Harris running mates, Gretchen Whitmer has the highest favorability: 27% view her favorably while 28% view her unfavorably. However, she has ruled herself out of the running. Amy Klobuchar (23% vs. 26%), Mark Kelly (22% vs. 20%), and Josh Shapiro (22% vs. 22%) also poll well
- There is still some tension within the party over what led to Biden stepping aside: 28% of Democrats say the president was unfairly pressured to drop out. 35% of Independents and 35% of Republicans agree
Biden's decision to step aside
- There is widespread approval for Biden's decision to step aside: 75% overall strongly or somewhat approve, including 87% of Democrats
- 63% say Biden should serve the rest of his term while 30% say he should resign now
- By 54% to 30%, registered voters say there has been a cover-up of Biden's health. 20% of Democrats, 60% of Independents, and 85% of Republicans say there has been a cover-up
- Among the 54% of registered voters who say there has been a cover-up, majorities say that all five offered options were involved a great deal: the Biden family (84% of those who say there was a cover-up say they were involved a great deal), White House staff (77%), Harris (68%), Democrats in Congress (61%), and the news media (59%)
- Democrats are much less likely to implicate Harris: Of Democrats who say there was a cover-up, only 22% say Harris was involved a great deal. 65% say the Biden family was involved a great deal and 55% say the same about White House staff
— Taylor Orth contributed to this article
Related: Times/SAY24 swing-state polls show Biden trailing and Democratic Senate candidates leading
See the results for this YouGov poll
Methodology: This poll was conducted online on July 22 - 23, 2024 among 1,170 U.S. registered voters. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. registered voters. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, and baseline party identification. Demographic weighting targets come from the U.S. Census American Community Survey and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey. The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%.
Image: Getty (Jim Vondruska / Stringer)
