This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers the election, Harris' gains, party unity, comparing Harris to Trump, JD Vance and possible Harris running mates, the Secret Service, abortion, affirmative action, and the Olympics.
The 2024 Election
Harris gains support
- Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump, 46% to 44%, in share of registered voters planning to vote for each candidate
- Trump has held a narrow lead for the last few weeks — first against Joe Biden, then against Harris last week, after Biden stepped aside
- Harris' gain on the margin is 4 percentage points since last week, when she trailed by 3 points
- Harris' lead is within the margin of error
- Harris' gains since the previous week's poll have included increases in support from registered voters who are Black (up 11 points to 74% who plan to vote for her), Hispanic voters (up 5 points to 50%), women (up 7 points to 50%), and adults under 30 (up 7 points to 56%)
- Harris leads Trump by 1 point among Independents — 40% to 39%
- 51% of registered voters say they would consider voting for Harris; 49% say the same about Trump
- Harris and Trump are tied at 49% apiece in share of all registered voters who would prefer one to the other, when offered only those two choices
- Harris trails Trump when it comes to voter enthusiasm, but the gap has narrowed: 64% of Harris supporters are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this year, compared with 72% of Trump voters; a week earlier those figures were 62% and 76%
- This week, nearly as many registered voters believe Harris will win in November (39%) as say Trump will (43%); a week earlier, the gap was 18 points: 52% of registered voters said Trump would win while only 34% thought Harris would
- 80% of Harris supporters now say she will win in November (up from 75% the previous week); 87% of Trump supporters think he will win (down from 95% the previous week).
Where the parties stand
- Americans are more likely to strongly or somewhat approve of the selection of Harris as Democratic nominee than to disapprove, by 49% to 39%
- Democrats approve of Harris' selection by 91% to 4%
- 44% of Americans say the process of selecting Harris was fair while 32% call it unfair; 83% of Democrats and only 10% of Republicans call it fair
- 43% of Americans say the Democratic Party is very or somewhat united – up from 28% a week earlier
- 50% say the Republican Party is united, a drop of 10 points from 60% a week earlier
- Americans overwhelmingly approve of President Joe Biden’s decision to step aside, by 76% to 13%
- Trump supporters are about twice as likely to approve than to disapprove of Biden’s withdrawal: 62% approve, 26% do not
JD Vance and possible Harris running mates
- Registered voters are more likely to have very or somewhat unfavorable opinions of Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance than to have favorable ones: 39% are favorable about him while 48% are unfavorable
- Among registered voters, men are more positive about Vance than women are: 45% of men are favorable and 47% are unfavorable, while 34% of women are favorable and 48% are unfavorable
- Only 30% of registered voters say Vance is qualified to serve as president while 45% say he is not
- Each of the six candidates for the Democratic vice presidential nomination included in the poll are viewed favorably by more registered than view them unfavorably – though many have not formed opinions yet
Comparing Harris to Biden and to Trump
- About half (48%) of registered voters say Harris is a strong leader, compared to 57% who say the same about Trump and 36% who described Biden that way two weeks earlier, the last time it was asked
- 36% of registered voters say Trump’s age and health would severely limit his ability to do the job of president if he were elected
- Just 7% say that about Harris' age and health would severely limit her ability to do the job of president; 73% say the same about Biden, had he been re-elected
The Secret Service
- 62% of Americans are only somewhat or not at all confident that the Secret Service can protect presidential candidates from harm, including 45% of Democrats and 80% of Republicans
- 61% of Americans — including 50% of Democrats and 78% of Republicans — approve of the resignation of Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle, who left after the July 13 failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump
Abortion
- 51% of Americans would strongly or somewhat support congressional action to establish a national right to abortion
- Only 21% would support Congress banning abortion nationwide
- Democrats are more likely than Republicans to support a nationwide right to abortion and less likely to support a national ban, though only 41% of Republicans support a nationwide ban
- Women are more likely than men to support congressional action to codify abortion rights and less likely to support a nationwide ban; the differences by gender are much smaller than by party identification
- 58% of Americans — including 59% of registered voters — say abortion should be legal in all or most cases
- 85% of registered voters think Harris' position is that abortion should be legal in all (53%) or most (31%) cases
- 75% of registered voters who think most or all abortions should be illegal say Harris would allow all abortions
- 74% of registered voters say Trump thinks most or all abortions should be illegal; 72% say the same about Vance
- 48% of registered voters say Harris is better on the issue of abortion than Trump
- 37% of registered voters say Trump is better on abortion than Harris is
DEI and affirmative action
- 42% of Americans view diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives favorably; 38% view them unfavorably
- 40% are favorable toward affirmative action while 34% are unfavorable toward it
- Black Americans, Hispanic Americans, women, younger adults, and Democrats all are more likely than Americans overall to be favorable toward DEI programs and affirmative action
The Olympics
- Despite the sabotage of the French national railroad last Friday — the day before the poll began fielding — 60% of Americans say they have a great deal or some confidence that the Paris Olympics will be safe from terrorism
- That's little changed from the 61% who said so a week earlier
Throughout this report, some numbers may appear to be off by 1 because of rounding
— Carl Bialik and Taylor Orth contributed to this article
See the toplines and crosstabs for the July 27 - 30, 2024 Economist/YouGov Poll
Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,605 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%.
Image: Getty (Megan Varner / Stringer)
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