This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers the state of the race between Harris and Trump, the vice presidential candidates and their military service, the Israel-Hamas war, and the Olympics.
Harris vs. Trump
- Vice President Kamala Harris continues to hold a 2-percentage-point lead among registered voters over former President Donald Trump
- 46% say they plan to vote for Harris in November while 44% prefer Trump
- More Harris supporters than Trump supporters are paying a lot of attention to the election (67% vs. 60%); in last week's poll those figures were 61% and 63%
- Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say they are very or extremely enthusiastic about voting for president (67% vs. 65%)
- Americans are equally likely to expect a Harris win and a Trump win in November (40% vs. 40%)
- By 50% to 41%, registered voters are more likely to say Trump says what he believes than to say he says what he thinks people want to hear
- By 49% to 42%, registered voters are more likely to say Harris says what she thinks people want to hear than think she says what she believes
- Both Walz and Vance are seen as more likely to say what they really believe than to say what they think people want to hear
- More registered voters see Trump as corrupt than say that about Harris; more say Harris is intelligent and qualified
The vice presidential candidates
- 47% of registered voters call Tim Walz a very or somewhat good choice as the Democratic vice presidential candidate, while 34% call him a bad choice
- 41% call Ohio Senator JD Vance, Walz's Republican counterpart, a good choice and 42% say he was a bad choice
- 42% of registered voters say Walz will help Harris win while 16% say he will hurt her chances
- 24% of registered voters say Vance will help Trump win while 29% say he will hurt Trump’s chances
- About two-thirds of registered voters know that JD Vance served in the military, and a similar share know that about Walz
- Majorities of registered voters say Vance and Walz served honorably; more say Walz did not serve honorably than say Vance did not
- Harris voters are more likely to say Vance served honorably than Trump supporters are to say Walz did
The Israel-Hamas war
- The presidential candidates’ supporters hold very different views about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: About two-thirds Trump supporters say their sympathies are more with the Israelis while about two-thirds of Harris supporters say their sympathies are either with the Palestinians or equally with the Palestinians and the Israelis
- Most Trump supporters (63%) see Harris as pro-Palestinian
- Majorities of Harris supporters and Trump supporters say Trump sympathizes more with Israel
- 33% of Americans say their sympathies are more with the Israelis, including 19% of adults under 45 and 44% of older adults
- 19% of Americans say their sympathies are more with the Palestinians, including 31% of adults under 45 and 9% of older adults
The Olympics
- More than half of American adults watched some events of the Summer Olympics — which, for the first time, had gender parity among the athletes
- Americans who watched say they watched more women’s events than men’s events
- By 62% to 38%, men say they mostly watched men’s competitions
- By 81% to 19%, women were more likely to watch more women’s events
- Older men are more likely than younger men to have watched more women's events than men's events, and the same is true of older women relative to younger women
- Majorities of men and women who watched the Paris Olympics say the host city was excellent or good
- Among all Americans, 49% expect Los Angeles to be excellent or good as host of the 2028 Olympics
- The Olympic sport that women are most likely to place in their five favorites is gymnastics, followed by swimming; for men, the leaders are basketball, swimming, and track and field
Throughout this report, some numbers may appear to be off by 1 because of rounding
— Carl Bialik and Taylor Orth contributed to this article
See the toplines and crosstabs for the August 11 - 13, 2024 Economist/YouGov Poll
Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,567 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%.
Image: Getty (Andrew Harnik / Stringer)
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