There are three cases pending against former president Donald Trump. YouGov polling conducted in mid-July finds that Americans are less likely to believe Trump will be convicted in any of the pending cases against him than they were in May and in June. While the share of Americans who believe Trump should be convicted in each case has remained relatively steady, the share who believe he will be convicted has fallen significantly — particularly from a high level of belief after Trump was convicted in the hush-money case against him in May. Additionally, the share of Americans who believe that convictions in each case would have no impact on his political career has grown, from between 24% and 27% for each case in June to between 44% and 45% in July.
Each case was described to respondents in each question about it, as follows:
Americans are less likely to believe Trump will be convicted on any of the pending cases against him in July — just after the attempt on Trump's life — than they were May 21 - 24, just before Trump's May 30 conviction in the hush-money case, or June 5 -7, just after his conviction. While the shares of Americans who believe Trump should be convicted in each case have remained relatively steady, the shares who believe he will be convicted rose from May to June, then fell substantially in July.
The YouGov poll in May found that 27% of Americans said they thought Trump would be convicted in the classified documents case. This number rose in the June 5 poll to 38% and then plummeted to 20% in the July poll.
May polling on the federal election and January 6 case found that 26% of Americans believed Trump would be convicted of a crime in this case; in June, far more (38%) thought he would be convicted. In July, just 22% believed he would be convicted in this case.
Polling on the Georgia election case found similar patterns, with the share of Americans who believed Trump would be convicted going from 25% to 36% to 22%.
The decline from June to July in the shares of Americans expecting more Trump convictions was similar, in percentage terms, among Democrats, Independents, and Republicans.
In June, 60% of Democrats — along with 33% of Independents and 20% of Republicans — believed that Trump would be convicted of a crime in the classified documents case. In July, roughly half as many in each group — 35% of Democrats, 15% of Independents, and 10% of Republicans — believed he would be convicted in this case.
Similarly, the share of Democrats believing Trump would be convicted in the federal election and Jan. 6 case went from 58% in June to 38% in July. Among Republicans, 20% said they thought he would be convicted in June and 12% in July.
June polling about the Georgia election case found that 59% of Democrats and 19% of Republicans said they thought Trump would be convicted. In July, 42% of Democrats and 9% of Republicans said the same.
Compared to May and June, fewer Americans in July believed that criminal convictions would have a negative impact on Trump's political career. For each of the three cases asked about, between 44% and 45% of Americans believed in July that a conviction would have no impact on Trump’s future political career.
The share of Americans who believed that a conviction in the classified documents case would have a very negative impact on Trump’s political career fell from 22% in June to 15% in July. About the federal election and January 6 case, 25% said in June that they thought a conviction in this case would have a very negative impact on Trump’s political career; 14% said the same in July. Polling on the Georgia election case follows a similar pattern: 22% said in June that a conviction would have a very negative impact on Trump’s political career, compared with 14% who said so in July.
While the poll did not ask Americans about the reasoning behind their beliefs, one factor that may have led to changes between June and July — besides the assassination attempt on Trump — is the Supreme Court ruling that a president has some immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts. The ruling was issued July 1. The Economist/YouGov Poll found that 20% of registered voters agree with the Supreme Court’s decision that presidents should have legal immunity to protect them from being charged for any actions taken as president; 63% disagree.
— Taylor Orth, Carl Bialik, and Bryn Healy contributed to this article
Related:
- What Americans think of the charges against Donald Trump in four cases
- What do Americans want in a president?
- Most Republicans say a criminal past is highly undesirable in a CEO; fewer say it is for a president
See the results for the July 18 - 20, 2024 YouGov poll, the June 5 - 7, 2024 YouGov poll, and the May 21 - 24, 2024 YouGov poll
Methodology: The July 18 - 20, 2024 poll was conducted online among 1,118 U.S. adult citizens. The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 4%. The June 5 - 7, 2024, poll was conducted online among 1,092 U.S. adult citizens. The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 4%. The May 21 - 24, 2024 poll was conducted online among 1,231 U.S. adult citizens. The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 4%. For all polls, respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican).
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