A pair of YouGov polls on the attempted assassination of Donald Trump conducted in the week after the former president survived a shooting show that majorities of Americans believe that the attack represents a failure by the Secret Service and that the incident will make Trump more popular. Many also say they think that there was more than one person involved in the attack. The poll also found that majorities of Americans believe there is more political violence and political misinformation in the U.S. than there was 10 years ago.
Nearly all Americans (97%) have heard about the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, with 75% who have heard a lot about it.
Who do Americans hold responsible for the attempted assassination? 85% say the shooter, Thomas Matthew Crooks, is very responsible. 31% say gun laws are very responsible for the incident, 30% say mental illness is, and 28% say the Secret Service is very responsible for the event. Though the attempt was on Trump's life, about as many blame Trump and Republicans (26%) as President Joe Biden and Democrats (25%). (Only 4% say Iran, which reportedly is linked to an unrelated threat on Trump.)
55% of Democrats say gun laws are very responsible for the attempted assassination; 47% say Trump and Republicans are very responsible. Among Republicans, 51% say Biden and Democrats are very responsible and 49% say the same about left-leaning media.
Most Americans (63%) say they believe that the attempted assassination represents a broader problem in American society; 19% think it was an isolated event. 77% of Republicans, along with 58% of Democrats and 56% of Independents, say it represents a broader problem in American society.
Among Americans who had heard about the assassination attempt, the most common ways people first learned of the news was through social media (25%), hearing or reading about it in the news (24%), or hearing about it from someone else in a message or by phone (14%).
A majority of Americans said they believed the event will increase Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election — in a poll conducted before Biden announced he was leaving the race. Most people (58%) think the attempted assassination will increase Trump’s odds of winning. Republicans (75%) are more likely than Independents (52%) and Democrats (47%) to say this.
78% of Americans have heard at least a little about Thomas Matthew Crooks, the man who allegedly attempted to assassinate Trump. Republicans (32%) are more likely than Democrats (23%) and Independents (18%) to say they’ve heard a lot about him.
26% of Americans say they believe that Crooks was motivated by political beliefs while a larger share (33%) think he was motivated by something other than political beliefs. 40% are not sure.
What do Americans believe Crooks' political beliefs were, if any? 20% of Americans think he was an anti-Trump Republican; 9% think he was a pro-Trump Republican. Fewer think he was a Democrat (9%). About one-quarter think he was either someone with a mix of political beliefs (20%) or non-political (6%).
Republicans (21%) are more likely than Independents (5%) or Democrats (2%) to believe Crooks was a Democrat.
Only 41% of Americans believe Crooks was the only one responsible for the attempted assassination. Another 29% believe that others were involved, and 30% say they are not sure.
Republicans are more likely to believe that there were others involved (45%) than to believe Crooks acted alone (30%).
Similar questions have been asked by pollsters about other high-profile acts of political violence, and often found greater levels of belief that more than one person was involved. For example, a 1976 Gallup poll found 69% thought others were involved in the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr., while 18% said it was the work of one man (shooter James Earl Ray). A 1988 CBS News / New York Times poll found 66% said others were involved in the assassination of John F. Kennedy and 13% said Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone.
The most common beliefs Americans hold about the incident, from a list of 10 given statements, are that Donald Trump was shot in the ear in the incident (83% of Americans strongly or somewhat agree with this statement), the attack represents a failure by the Secret Service (68%), and the attack will make Trump more popular (67%). (The director of the Secret Service announced her resignation soon after the shooting.) Majorities say they believe heated political rhetoric contributed to the attack (63%), Donald Trump showed courage during the attack (61%), the attack was domestic terrorism (59%), and Trump deserves sympathy for the attack (54%).
Among the biggest gaps in Republicans’ and Democrats’ perception about the events: 95% of Republicans and 31% of Democrats say Trump showed courage during the attack. 83% of Republicans and 31% of Democrats say Trump deserves sympathy for the attack. Just 27% of Republicans believe the shooter was a Republican and 71% of Democrats do.
66% of Americans think the U.S. has more political violence than it did 10 years ago. Majorities believe the U.S. has more political misinformation (71%), influence by elites (58%), and political gridlock (57%) than it did in 2014. Just 12% say the country now has more political unity than it did 10 years ago; 65% say it has less.
Looking to the future, 47% of Americans believe the U.S. currently has more political misinformation than it will in 10 years. 42% think the country currently has more influence by elites than it will in 2034, and 41% say the same about political violence.
Most Americans also believe that the U.S. has more political misinformation (60%) than other democracies in the world do. 57% believe the U.S. has more influence by elites than other democracies do and 50% believe the country has more political gridlock.
Democrats (58%) are more likely than Independents (47%) and Republicans (46%) to say that the U.S. has more political gridlock than other democracies. Close to half of Democrats (47%) think the U.S. has more political violence than other democracies; fewer Republicans (40%) and Independents (38%) agree.
Additional polling on the future of the U.S. finds that 42% of Americans think it’s likely there will be a civil war within the next 10 years, including 14% who think this is very likely. Republicans (19%) are more likely than Independents (12%) and Democrats (11%) to say it’s very likely there will be a civil war in the next decade.
19% of Americans believe it’s very likely that within the next 10 years, the U.S. will no longer be a global superpower. 17% believe it’s very likely that there will be a total economic collapse.
— Taylor Orth and Carl Bialik contributed to this article
Related:
- Snap poll: Most Americans approve of Biden ending his re-election campaign
- Trump's lead, Biden's age, Harris, Vance, and conventions: July 13 - 16, 2024 Economist/YouGov Poll
See the results for the July 15 - 19, 2024 YouGov poll and the July 17 - 20, 2024 YouGov poll
Methodology: The July 15 - 19, 2024 poll was conducted online among 2,279 U.S. adult citizens on two separate surveys from July 15 - 18, 2024 and July 16 - 19, 2024. The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%. The July 17 - 20, 2024 poll was conducted online among 1,140 U.S. adult citizens. The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 4%. For both polls, respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican).
Image: Getty (Anna Moneymaker / Staff)
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