How views of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump changed after their debate

Taylor OrthDirector of Survey Data Journalism
Carl BialikU.S. Politics Editor and Vice President of Data Science
September 18, 2024, 1:31 AM GMT+0

Polling in the immediate aftermath of the debate between presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump found that Harris was perceived by far more Americans as the night's winner. New results from surveys conducted after the debate are consistent with those initial findings, and show how views of the candidates — including their debate styles, personalities, and policies — have changed after their first and potentially last showdown, on September 10. In addition, the surveys explore Americans' reactions to a variety of claims made by the candidates during the debate, including on their economic plans, immigration, foreign policy, and Project 2025.

Views on the debate and candidates

  • In our most recent poll, 73% of Americans say they watched at least some of the debate, including clips or highlights of it. That includes 40% who say they watched all of it.
  • Among people who watched at least some of the debate, 56% think Harris was the winner while 28% think Trump was. 8% say it was a tie and 9% aren't sure.
  • Nearly half of people (46%) who watched at least some of the debate found it enjoyable, more than the share who said so after watching the Biden-Trump debate in June (33%).
    • Democrats had a better time watching Trump's debate against Harris, while the opposite is true for Republicans.
  • Among debate-watchers, 53% strongly or somewhat approve of how the debate was run, while 40% disapprove. Democrats are more than three times as likely as Republicans to approve of how it was run.
  • About half of those who watched (47%) think the moderators were fair and unbiased; 37% think they were biased in favor of Harris, and 5% think they were biased in favor of Trump.
  • Majorities of Democrats (73%) and Republicans (73%) say they would be at least somewhat interested in watching another presidential debate this year.
  • Most Americans say they want there to be additional debates, including 24% who want one more, 20% who want two more, and 8% who want three or more additional debates. Just 23% say they don't want there to be any more debates.

  • More debate-watchers say that Harris treated her opponent appropriately during the debate (57%) than say that Trump did (40%).
  • Among debate-watchers, more say the debate improved their opinion of Harris (39%) than of Trump (17%). About as many say the debate made them think less favorably of Harris (26%) as of Trump (29%).
    • In response to the last debate, 7% of debate-watchers viewed Biden more favorably and 29% viewed Trump more favorably. 52% said it made them view Biden less favorably and 24% said the same about Trump.
  • In regard to how opinions of the candidates' debate attributes changed before and after the debate, we find that Americans now are more likely to say Harris is a better debater than Trump, and better at staying calm under pressure. Fewer now say Harris is likelier than Trump to fumble over her words than did prior to the debate.

  • Views on how Harris and Trump compare on personality have shifted only slightly since we last measured opinions on them at the start of August.
    • Compared to Trump, Harris is seen as more compassionate, likable, intelligent, competent, and honest.
    • Relative to Harris, more say Trump is a strong leader.
    • Harris and Trump are about as likely to be seen as more authentic and charismatic as one another.

  • Opinions on which candidate is better equipped to handle specific issues have not changed much since the start of August.
    • More say Harris than Trump would be better at handling LGBTQ issues, abortion, the environment, health care, and education.
    • More say Trump than Harris is better at handling immigration, the economy, inflation, crime, foreign policy, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Claims made during the debate

We polled several comments Harris and Trump made during the debate to see how many Americans agree.

What is Trump's role in Project 2025?

  • Toward the start of the debate, Harris referenced Project 2025, saying, "what you're going to hear tonight is a detailed and dangerous plan called Project 2025 that the former president intends on implementing if he were elected again." Trump replied to this claim by saying that he has "nothing to do with Project 2025. That's out there. I haven't read it."
    • The share of Americans who have heard something about Project 2025 has increased significantly since July, to 73% from 58%.
    • Negative views of the policy project also have increased: 52% now view it very or somewhat unfavorably, up from 39%. A majority of Republicans (53%) say they aren't sure, while 21% view it favorably and 26% unfavorably. The vast majority of Democrats view it unfavorably.
    • Nearly half of Americans (46%) believe Trump or his advisors were definitely or probably involved in creating Project 2025, while just 27% believe they definitely or probably were not.

Whose plan would increase the deficit more?

  • Harris stated during the debate that "what the Wharton School has said is Donald Trump's plan would actually explode the deficit."
    • Americans disagree on whose plan experts say would increase the national deficit by a larger amount: 34% say Harris and 34% say Trump. 8% say there would be no difference and 24% aren't sure.

Who pays the cost of tariffs on foreign imports?

  • Harris and Trump sparred during the debate over who would ultimately pay the costs of higher tariffs: the American people or foreign countries.
    • Americans are more likely to side with Harris: 48% say the cost of tariffs on foreign imports is mostly borne by companies and people in the U.S., while 25% say it is mostly borne by the country exporting products.
    • A majority of Democrats (60%) side with Harris. Republicans are divided: 42% say tariffs are ultimately paid mostly by other countries, while 38% think they are mostly paid by Americans.

How was the Afghanistan withdrawal handled?

  • Trump criticized Biden's handling of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, saying it "was one of the most incompetently handled situations anybody has ever seen." Harris responded that "she agreed with President Biden's decision to pull out of Afghanistan."
    • Americans are divided on the U.S.'s role in Afghanistan: 27% think the withdrawal of troops in 2021 was too late, 22% think it was too soon, and 24% think it was at about the right time. More Republicans (36%) than Democrats (9%) think the U.S. withdrew too soon.
    • More disapprove (52%) than approve (31%) of Biden's handling of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. 81% of Republicans disapprove and 11% approve, while 22% of Democrats disapprove and 61% approve.

Would the U.S. be better off with Ukraine or Russia winning the war?

  • During the debate, the moderators repeatedly pushed Trump on the question of whether it was more in the interest of the U.S. for Ukraine or Russia to win the war between them. He did not provide a firm answer.
    • Far more believe the U.S. would be better off with Ukraine winning (50%) than with Russia winning (2%). 66% of Democrats and 43% of Republicans say the U.S. would be better off with a Ukraine win.
    • Far more Americans also personally sympathize with Ukraine (67%) than with Russia (2%) in the conflict between them.

  • Trump repeatedly claimed that above all, he would end the conflict, stating, "I'll get the war with Ukraine and Russia ended. If I'm president-elect, I'll get it done before even becoming president."
    • Americans are more likely to think that the war would end sooner if Trump becomes president (41%) than if Harris does (16%).
  • Harris said to Trump during the debate that "these dictators and autocrats are rooting for you to be president again because they're so clear, they can manipulate you with flattery and favors."
    • 46% of Americans think that Trump is more likely than Harris (29%) to be manipulated by flattery and favors from world leaders.

Who should decide abortion laws?

  • On the issue of abortion, Trump said that "we've gotten what everybody wanted. Democrats, Republicans and everybody else and every legal scholar wanted it to be brought back into the states."
    • In reality, our polling finds that about as many Americans want abortion laws to be decided nationally (43%) as want it to be left to the states (41%). While 70% of Republicans want states to decide abortion laws, just 36% of Independents and 19% of Democrats agree.

  • Harris, on the other hand, vowed to return abortion laws to how they were under Roe v. Wade, saying, "I pledge to you when Congress passes a bill to put back in place the protections of Roe v. Wade as president of the United States, I will proudly sign it into law. "
    • 54% of Americans strongly or somewhat support a national law codifying Roe v. Wade, while 33% oppose one. This law is supported by 84% of Democrats, 51% of Independents, and 25% of Republicans.

Is Kamala Harris a Marxist?

  • Trump claimed of Harris: "She's a Marxist. Everybody knows she's a Marxist."
    • In our latest survey, just one in five Americans (21%) apply the label of "Marxist" to Kamala Harris when asked to select all that apply from a list of descriptors. Slightly more describe her as a socialist (31%), and the largest share as a liberal (59%).
    • More describe Trump as an authoritarian (42%) than describe Harris as a Marxist. Trump is most likely to be described as a conservative (49%). 29% say he is a nationalist, and 28%, a fascist. Slightly more believe Trump is an extremist (35%) than say so about Harris (24%).

Is Biden the most divisive president?

  • During the debate, Trump claimed that Biden's presidency is "the most divisive presidency in the history of our country."
    • Americans disagree with this claim: More describe Trump's presidency as very divisive (47%) than describe Biden's that way (30%).
    • Other recent presidents also are seen as less divisive than Trump. Obama's presidency is viewed similarly to Biden's, and even fewer say the presidencies of George W. Bush or Bill Clinton were very divisive.

Are migrants eating pets? And other untrue claims

  • Trump made a number of false claims during the debate against Harris. Some of these claims are believed by large shares of Americans:
    • 52% think it is definitely or probably true that "the U.S. has given more aid to Ukraine than all European allies combined have given"
    • 47% believe that "millions of illegal immigrants enter the U.S. each month"
    • 45% believe that "the U.S. inflation rate is at its highest point in history"
    • 42% believe that "Democrats want migrants to come into the country illegally so they will vote"
    • 39% believe that "Venezuela is deliberately sending people from prisons and mental institutions to the U.S."
    • 39% believe that "crime has fallen around the world but has peaked in U.S. cities"
  • Smaller shares believe some of his other claims, including:
    • 26% believe that "in some states it is legal to kill a baby after birth"
    • 26% believe that "Haitian immigrants are abducting and eating pet dogs and cats"
    • 16% believe that "public schools are providing students with sex-change operations"

  • Trump's supporters are especially likely to believe his claims. At least half believe his statements about Democrats wanting non-citizens to vote, Venezuela sending migrants, the amount of U.S. aid to Ukraine, the U.S. inflation rate, the number of illegal immigrants, rising crime rates, and Haitian migrants.

Related:

See the results for these polls:

Methodology: This article includes results from two surveys. The first was conducted online September 11 - 12, 2024 among 1,120 U.S. adult citizens. The second was conducted on September 12 - 15, 2024 among 1,155 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of adult U.S. citizens. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 4%.

Image: Getty

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