This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers the closely contested presidential election; where voters and the candidates stand on immigration, foreign policy, and other major issues; how Americans are voting and whether they trust elections; and the World Series.
The election
Who is ahead?
- Vice President Kamala Harris is maintaining a slim lead over former President Donald Trump among registered voters: 48% prefer Harris, 46% Trump
- Only 3% of registered voters say they are unsure of how they will vote
- Likely voters — registered voters who either say they will definitely vote or have voted already, as well as those who say they will probably vote and voted in either 2020 or 2022 — favor H arris by 49% to 46%
- There is a large gender gap in vote intention, partially reflecting that a greater share of women than men are Democrats and partly reflecting a large gender gap among Independents
- Trump leads by 5 percentage points among Independent men while Harris leads among Independent women by 17 points
- 94% of Republican men and 93% of Republican women support Trump, while 93% of Democratic men and 96% of Democratic women favor Harris
- But women are 5 points more likely to be Democrats than Republicans, while men are equally likely to identify with the two parties
- 63% think the country is ready for a woman president, and a similar share — 59% — hope for a woman to be elected president in their own lifetimes
- 94% of Harris supporters and 23% of Trump supporters are hoping to see a woman elected president in their lifetimes, perhaps partially reflecting their preference in this election
- Black voters favor Harris by 80% to 13%
- Trump leads among white men by 20 points and among white women by 4 points
- Just 3% of registered voters are undecided; Independents and moderates are more likely to be undecided (7% each) but the vast majority in each group intend to vote for either Harris or Trump
- Harris has a 6-point lead among Independents
Immigration
- 30% of Trump’s supporters say immigration is their most important issue; only inflation ranks higher, at 34%
- Concern about immigration is not necessarily tied to personal experiences with immigrants: Only 10% of Trump’s supporters say they live in communities that are made up mostly or almost entirely of immigrants
- But Trump supporters' view of immigrants is negative: 50% say immigrants commit crimes more often than non-immigrants, and only 5% say less often
- 64% of Trump’s supporters say immigration has made the U.S. worse, and only 14% say it has made the U.S. better — and that is about immigration generally, not specifically illegal immigration
- 65% of Trump supporters who have a grandparent but not a parent who is an immigrant say immigration has made the U.S. worse, and only 15% say it has made the U.S. better
- Majorities of registered voters strongly or somewhat support multiple ways of dealing with immigration — for example, 61% would shut the border if illegal entries average at least 5,000 a day, 58% would favor having active-duty troops help with arrests along the U.S.-Mexico border, 54% would arrest and deport millions of illegal immigrants, and 54% would fund a border wall
- But even larger majorities also support a path to citizenship for those brought to the U.S. as children (73%), would allow undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens to stay in the country (66%), and would expand family and employment-based visas (63%)
- Registered voters are closely divided on ending birthright citizenship: 46% support ending it, while 43% do not
Foreign policy
- Roughly equal shares of registered voters trust Harris and Trump on international and military matters: About half are confident that Harris (49%) and Trump (50%) can be effective commanders-in-chief of the U.S. military
- Less than half are confident in each of Harris' and Trump’s ability to deal wisely with an international crisis
- For Ukraine, Harris supporters are more likely to want to increase aid than to decrease it, while Trump supporters are more likely to support decreasing aid
- For Israel, the situation is reversed: Trump voters are more likely to want to increase military aid to Israel, while Harris voters are more likely to want to decrease aid
- Republicans are more likely than not to have an unfavorable view of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky: 30% have very or somewhat favorable views of him and 46% very or somewhat unfavorable
- This is a dramatic change from the immediate aftermath of Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine: In mid-March 2022, 68% of Republicans had a favorable opinion of Zelensky and just 11% an unfavorable opinion
- Views of Zelensky among Democrats are largely unchanged over that time, from 73% favorable in March 2022 to 69% favorable now
Other major issues
- More registered voters say Harris would do a better job than Trump at handling abortion, health care, and climate change; Trump leads on immigration and inflation, which are the most important issues for more Americans than any other
- On jobs and foreign policy, voters are closely divided on whether Harris or Trump would do a better job
- About half of registered voters (48%) say the economy would improve if Trump wins and 39% say it would get worse
- 37% say the economy would improve under President Harris and 44% say it would get worse
How Americans vote
- The increase in the share of voters who vote before Election Day means that most people now vote before Election Day
- 59% of registered voters say they will vote before November 5, either in person or by mail
- 19% of registered voters say they have already voted and, like registered voters overall, people who have voted are closely divided: 50% say they voted for Harris, 48% for Trump, and 2% for another candidate
- Voters differ depending on how they cast their ballot: Those who have or plan to vote in person, either on or before Election Day, are more likely to support Trump, while those who have or plan to vote by mail overwhelmingly favor Harris
Trust in elections
- 50% of Harris supporters and 69% of Trump supporters are somewhat or completely dissatisfied with how democracy works in the U.S.
- 86% of Harris supporters but only 33% of Trump supporters have quite a bit or a great deal of confidence that their own vote will be counted accurately
- 80% of Harris supporters but only 20% of Trump supporters have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence that the election will be held fairly
The World Series
- One-third of Americans expect to watch the World Series
- People planning to watch the World Series are split on what they expect to happen: 38% say the Yankees will win while 37% say the Dodgers will
- Americans who plan to watch the World Series narrowly are more likely to root for the Dodgers than the Yankees (41% to 34%)
Throughout this report, some numbers may appear to be off by 1 because of rounding
— Carl Bialik and Taylor Orth contributed to this article
See the toplines and crosstabs for the October 19 - 22, 2024 Economist/YouGov Poll
Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,615 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%
Image: Getty (Win McNamee / Staff)
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