A YouGov poll of 1,266 registered voters between October 18 - 21, 2024 — conducted for the Times and SAY24, a joint project of Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale Universities — shows how Kamala Harris has maintained a narrow lead over Donald Trump in the presidential election, finds subtle shifts in perceptions of the candidates' relative strengths, and picks up on concerns over possible partisan violence in the aftermath of the closely contested election.
Harris leads Trump by 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%. Nearly one in five registered voters (18%) tell us they have already voted, and the early voters heavily favor Harris. Harris leads by a wide margin (60% to 37%) among those who have already voted. Trump has a slight edge among those who have not yet voted (46% to 44%). 61% of Harris voters say they are "more enthusiastic than usual about voting," compared to 53% of Trump voters.
Besides their preferred voting methods, another way Harris' and Trump's supporters differ is in their view of whether the country's best days lie in the past or in the future. About twice as many Harris supporters say America's best days are ahead of it than say they are behind it. The reverse is true of Trump supporters: About twice as many see the country's best days in the past than in the future. Registered voters overall are nearly evenly split: 37% say our best days are ahead of us and 39% say they are behind us.
Women, older Americans, and residents of the Northeast and Midwest lean slightly toward locating the country's best days in the past, but the differences by gender, age, and geographical location are much smaller than the differences by preferred presidential candidate.
Another way supporters of Harris and Trump differ: How likely they are to say they would accept a narrow loss by their preferred candidate. Harris supporters are twice as likely to say they think they would (70% vs. 36%). Trump supporters are evenly split about accepting a close Trump loss: 36% say they think they would accept it and 38% say they wouldn't.
This aligns with beliefs about the likelihood of the candidates to accept their own narrow loss, should one happen. 65% of registered voters who support either Harris or Trump say they think Trump wouldn't accept a narrow loss, compared to only 27% who say the same of Harris. (Among all registered voters, 66% say Trump wouldn't accept a close loss and 27% say the same of Harris.)
Related:
- Kamala Harris' debate win hasn't yet won her new voters, but more like her and see her as qualified
- Kamala Harris leads in four of seven swing states in the latest Times/SAY24 polling
See the results for this YouGov poll
Methodology: This poll was conducted online on October 18 - 21, 2024 among 1,266 U.S. registered voters. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. registered voters. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, and baseline party identification. Demographic weighting targets come from the U.S. Census American Community Survey and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey. The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%.
Image: Getty (Andrew Harnik / Staff)
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