Americans are about as likely as not to say Donald Trump, age 78, is too old to be president, and concerns about the former president's fitness for office have been growing. However, they remain significantly lower than similar concerns about President Joe Biden, 81, before he withdrew from the race. Few have similar concerns about Kamala Harris, 60, who replaced Biden as the Democratic candidate and Trump's main opponent. A growing share of Americans think it's fair game to discuss candidates' physical health.
Concerns about Trump’s age have increased over time
Over the course of the 2024 campaign, Americans have grown increasingly concerned about how Trump’s age may affect his ability to serve as president. The Stanford-Arizona State-Yale Election Panel (SAY24), conducted by YouGov, interviews the same group of respondents every four weeks, allowing us to track changes over time in panelists’ thoughts about the 2024 election. Between February and October 2024, the share of panelists saying that Trump is too old to be president rose to 44% from 35%, while the share saying he is not too old dropped to 46% from 53%.
While concerns about Trump’s age are on the rise, they are still well below the level of concern about Biden’s age when the president was the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. Between February and July 2024, when Biden withdrew from the campaign, the share of Americans saying he was too old to be president grew to 70% from 63%. In the same time period, the share saying he was not too old fell to 18% from 25%.
This means the change in attitudes towards Biden's and Trump’s age has been relatively similar. The prevalence of the belief that Biden is too old to be president grew 7 percentage points in five months, while the share of Americans believing that Trump is too old grew 9 points in eight months. However, the two candidates started at very different baselines. At the beginning of the year, a majority of Americans already believed Biden was too old, while only about one-third of Americans believed the same about Trump. So even now the share of Americans who say Trump is too old is within the margin of error of the share who say he is not too old.
Most Americans think Trump’s health and age would affect him as president
Even though Americans are no more likely to say that Trump is too old to be president than to say that he is not too old, more Americans have concerns about his age and health. A majority of Americans (56%) believe Trump’s health and age would affect his ability to fulfill his duties as president at least a little, according to an October 18 - 20, 2024 poll — including 36% who believe a Trump presidency would be severely limited by his health and age. Just 33% of Americans believe Trump's health and age would have no effect on his ability to serve as president.
Beliefs about Trump’s health and age are sharply divided by party — as are most beliefs about Trump, Biden, or Harris. Democrats are the most likely to believe Trump would be severely limited by his health and age as president: 71% believe this, while a further 15% believe his health and age would have a smaller effect. Just 9% of Democrats believe a Trump presidency would be unaffected by his health and age. In contrast, Republicans are most likely to believe he would be unaffected: 66% of Republicans hold this view, while 29% believe his health and age would have some effect on his presidency. Independents fall in between the two extremes, but they are still more likely to believe Trump’s health and age would have an effect than to believe there would be no effect: 31% of Independents believe Trump would be severely limited by his health and age, while a further 20% believe there would be a smaller effect. In contrast, 26% of Independents believe Trump would be unaffected by health and age.
Americans who have seen video of Trump speaking in the last month are more likely to express concerns about Trump’s age and health. Most Americans who have seen Trump speak in the last month (60%) believe his health and age would affect his ability to perform his duties as president, while 40% of those who have not seen Trump speak in the last month feel the same. A much larger share of people who have not seen Trump speak in the last month are unsure about the effect of his health and age (29%) than the share of those who have seen him speak who are unsure (6%). It seems like Trump’s recent speeches are helping Americans make up their mind about his health — and for many, not in the way his campaign would hope. Seeing a presidential candidate speak recently also is correlated with greater overall awareness of the election and a greater likelihood to have opinions about the candidates.
In contrast, most Americans (62%) believe Harris’ age and health would have no effect on her ability to perform her duties as president. Just 16% believe it would have a little effect and 9% believe it would severely limit her. Like feelings about Trump’s health and age, attitudes about Harris are divided by party, but Americans of all parties are more likely to say Harris’ health and age would have no effect than to say there would be a small or significant effect: 82% of Democrats, 56% of Independents, and 48% of Republicans say a Harris presidency would not be affected by her health and age, while 13% of Democrats, 22% of Independents, and 39% of Republicans believe there would be some effect.
Americans who have seen Harris speak in the last month are more likely to say her health and age would have no effect on her as president (67%, compared to 46% of those who have not seen her speak), but no more likely to say it would have an effect (24% of both groups). In contrast to Trump’s recent speeches, Harris’ seem more likely to allay concerns about her health than to stoke them.
Many Americans believe Trump is suffering a cognitive decline — but a similar share is unconvinced
Recent news coverage has highlighted some Americans’ concerns about Trump’s mental acuity. On the SAY24 survey, we asked Americans if they think Trump has experienced a cognitive decline. Views on the topic are evenly split: 40% believe Trump is experiencing a significant or modest decline while 40% believe he is not suffering a decline. The remaining 20% of Americans are not sure.
Those who say they pay a lot of attention to news about the 2024 election are most likely to say Trump is experiencing a cognitive decline: 45% of this group believe he is suffering a modest or significant decline. However, this same group is also most likely to say he is not experiencing a cognitive decline (48%). It’s to be expected that people who pay the most attention to election news are most likely to have formed an opinion about a subject of recent news media coverage. It remains to be seen if this story will gain traction with those who pay less attention to the news, most of whom are undecided on this topic.
The partisan patterns are similar here. Americans who plan to vote for Harris are much more likely than those who plan to vote for Trump to believe Trump is experiencing a decline. While 81% of Harris voters believe Trump has experienced a modest or significant decline, just 6% of Trump voters say the same. In contrast, 85% of Trump voters believe he hasn’t suffered any cognitive decline, a view shared by only 5% of Harris voters.
Voters who plan to vote for other candidates and undecided voters are also more likely than not to believe that Trump is suffering cognitive decline. Most supporters of other candidates (59%) believe Trump has experienced a modest or significant cognitive decline, while just 24% believe he hasn’t suffered a decline. Undecided voters are about as likely to say that Trump has suffered a decline (36%) as they are to say they are not sure about his cognitive state (36%), but the share who say he has not suffered any decline is smaller (28%).
Americans see Harris as more transparent than Trump about health
Americans are more likely to believe that Harris has provided enough information about her physical health than to believe that Trump has provided enough about his. While 46% of Americans believe Harris has shared enough information, 30% say the same about Trump, according to a separate recent survey. Conversely, 21% of Americans believe Harris has not shared enough information, while 44% say the same about Trump.
Like with other aspects of opinion on candidate health, views on information disclosure are sharply divided by party. Most Democrats (80%) believe Harris has shared enough information while only 12% believe Trump has. Republicans’ opinions paint the opposite picture, although they are a bit less lopsided: 57% believe Trump has shared enough information while only 21% believe Harris has. Independents are more likely to view Harris as transparent than to view Trump the same way: 38% of Independents believe Harris has shared enough information while 18% believe she has not. In contrast, 24% of Independents believe Trump has shared enough information while 40% believe he has not.
Is it fair to question a candidate’s health?
Most Americans believe it is fair for the media to question a candidate’s physical health, and this has been the case for all of the past three election cycles. Today, 72% of Americans say it is fair for the media to question candidates’ health. In 2020, 61% expressed this view, and in 2016, 68% said the same. The view that it is unfair to question candidates’ health has consistently been in the minority: 13% in 2024, and 29% in 2020 and 2016.
While there is a partisan divide on this question, that divide has changed over time. Today, 79% of Democrats say it is fair to question a candidate's health, while 69% of Republicans say the same. There was a similar divide in 2020: 68% of Democrats said questions about health were fair while 57% of Republicans said the same. While the coronavirus pandemic likely affected respondents’ thinking about this question in 2020, the survey was fielded before Biden or Trump had ever tested positive for COVID–19. However, in 2016, the partisan divide on this question was flipped: 87% of Republicans believed it was fair to ask questions about candidates’ health, while only 52% of Democrats said the same. The poll was conducted just after Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton contracted pneumonia.
— Taylor Orth and Carl Bialik contributed to this article
Related:
- Half of Americans believe Biden's age makes it more difficult to do the work the presidency requires
- Americans’ concern about Biden’s age is high, but unchanged after special counsel report
- Snap post-debate poll: 30% of Democrats say 'someone else' would be a stronger candidate than Biden
- How views of Biden and Trump changed after the first debate
Methodology and results:
February 21 - October 22, 2024 SAY24 poll: YouGov invited 10,028 U.S. adults to participate in 9 surveys. The surveys were fielded every 4 weeks between February 21 and October 22, 2024 for the SAY24 project for Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale Universities. Between 4,730 and 6,813 respondents completed each survey. Each sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey, and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as 2020 Presidential vote and partisan identification. Weights for each survey range from 0.04 to 6.79, with a mean of 1 and standard deviations ranging from 1.1 to 1.5. The margin of error (a 95% confidence interval) for a percentage based upon the entire sample of each month ranges between ±1.9% and ±2.5%.
October 18 - 20, 2024 poll: This YouGov poll was conducted online on October 18 - 20, 2024 among 1,081 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of adult U.S. citizens. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 4%.
October 17, 2024 Daily Questions survey: The Daily Questions survey was conducted online on October 17, 2024 among 4,001 U.S. adults. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, U.S. census region, and political party. The margin of error for the survey is approximately 2%. Results:
- Do you think it’s fair or unfair for the media to question a political candidate’s physical health?
- Do you think Kamala Harris has or has not provided enough information about her physical health?
- Do you think Donald Trump has or has not provided enough information about his physical health?
Image: Getty
