The third and final release of our model estimating 2024 presidential-election votes in every state, based upon more than 55,000 recent interviews of registered voters, shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 50% to 47% in the national popular vote less than a week before Election Day. The Nov. 1 update shows Harris with 240 electoral votes, Trump with 218, and 80 electoral votes as tossups.
This is a change from the October 16 release, which showed Harris with 250 votes, Trump with 219, and 69 electoral votes as tossups.
270 votes are needed to be elected and, according to our model, the outcome will be determined by races that we currently rate as tossups: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s 2nd District. All of these contests are within the margin of error and could go either way.
The latest model update is based on 57,784 interviews through October 31 from YouGov’s U.S. panel conducted as part of the SAY24 project, a collaboration between Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale Universities.
