Americans hold divided views on Donald Trump’s second term, according to two separate polls by YouGov in the week after the election (November 6 - 9 and November 9 - 12). Many of Trump's voters are eager for action on immigration and economic reforms. Kamala Harris’ voters, on the other hand, express deep concerns about Trump taking office; many express fears that democracy will erode and fundamental rights will be lost. Meanwhile, expectations for a woman to be elected president have fallen. And Democrats' concerns about extreme scenarios — including economic collapse, the downfall of democracy, and civil war — have increased dramatically after the election.
Views turn more negative on the timing of the first woman to be elected president
Many Americans who expected the U.S. would have its first woman president soon are less likely after Harris' loss to expect a first woman president soon. Only 8% of Americans now expect the U.S. will elect a woman president in the next five years; just before the 2024 election, 37% thought it would. Expectations for a woman being elected president are lower than where they were before the 2020 election, as well as where they stood just after Hillary Clinton's loss in 2016.
Democrats now fear dire scenarios for the U.S. more than Republicans do
The election appears to have drastically altered Democrats' and Republicans' expectations for how likely it is that various dire scenarios will occur in the U.S. in the next decade. Compared to roughly two weeks before the election, our post-election poll finds that far more Democrats now think it is very likely that there will be total economic collapse (+41 percentage points), that U.S. democracy will end (+35), that the U.S. will no longer be a global superpower (+32), and that there will be a total breakdown of law and order (+32). Republicans' expectations for these events occurring, on the other hand, have fallen by similar or slightly smaller margins than the increase in Democrats' expectations.
There also has been a notable decline in Republicans' desire for secession of their state. Earlier this year, 29% of Republicans said they supported their state seceding from the U.S. Now, only 11% do. Democrats did not significantly change their views on the secession of their state.
Expectations for Trump's second term are higher than they were for his first
What do Americans expect during Trump's second term? 28% of Americans expect Trump to be an outstanding president, which is more than the 17% who thought just after the 2016 election that he would be an outstanding president. Expectations for Trump's presidency particularly have increased among Republicans: 62% now expect him to be excellent as the country's next president, while just 37% thought this would be the case in 2016.
One-third of Americans (34%) expect that as president, Trump will keep all or most of his campaign promises; just after his 2016 victory, fewer — 26% — expected he would do so. Other changes since Trump's 2016 win include an increase in the share of Americans who describe him as a very strong leader (40% now do vs. 27% who did in 2016). The share of Americans who say Trump respects women also has risen, to 44% from 29% in 2020 and 27% in 2016.
Evaluations of Trump's susceptibility to scandal have not changed much since he was last elected: 38% anticipate his presidency will have many scandals, and roughly the same share (39%) believed this would be the case after he was elected in 2016.
Voters in their own words
Both recent surveys asked Americans to tell us in their own words what they expect from a second Trump administration. We analyzed responses with the assistance of AI tools.
When asked to share in their own words what Trump should prioritize in his second term, a large number of Trump supporters express a desire for him to focus on immigration and border security by emphasizing actions such as closing the border, deporting illegal immigrants, and building the wall, according to responses to the November 6-9 survey. Alongside immigration, economic issues were frequently listed as a priority, with many mentions of lowering inflation, reducing government spending, cutting taxes, and achieving energy independence, often through domestic oil drilling and fracking. Many supporters also called for re-evaluating foreign policy, advocating for continuing support for Israel, reducing U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts, and reasserting U.S. independence on the global stage. One respondent hopes that Trump will live up to his promise about the war in Ukraine, saying, "He said he would resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict within a day."
We asked Harris voters to tell us in their own words about concerns they have for a second Trump presidency. Many expressed fears about the erosion of democracy, a loss of rights, and economic collapse under a future Trump presidency. One voter described concerns that Trump's presidency would lead to "the destruction of a century of human rights, labor rights, environmental action, institutional reform, and the destruction of our secular democracy." Supporters fear that a Trump-led government could threaten freedoms for marginalized communities, including women, immigrants, LGBTQ+ people, and people of color. Economic anxieties also are prominent. Some Harris voters worry about increased tariffs, inflation, and potential rollbacks of social services such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Some Harris voters also mentioned fearing for their personal safety, increased political polarization, violence, and revenge-driven governance. Many are concerned that Trump will become a dictator. One respondent said, "I fear that Donald Trump will rule the country as a dictator with no one to challenge and keep him in line."
The recent Economist/YouGov survey asked Americans to tell us in their own words what they expect to result from Trump's victory.
For some Trump voters, the win represented a reprieve from what they see as a period of ineffective policies under Democratic leadership. Many believe his policies will improve the economy, secure the borders, and restore conservative values. One voter said, "I'm looking forward to a better economy and being able to afford life again and take care of my family. Also not giving billions away to people other than our citizens."
Many Harris voters fear that Trump's administration will reverse Democratic policies on issues such as gender equality, LGBTQ+ rights, and immigration. One respondent summed up his reaction as, "This is the end of my right to marriage as a gay man and the end of democracy as we know it." More than a dozen other respondents who are Harris voters also say they're worried that the country will take an authoritarian turn. Some of them draw historical parallels to the rise of fascism in other countries. Several Harris voters say the election has caused them to consider relocating.
The Democratic and Republican Parties
How do Americans think the political parties have changed in recent years, and what do they expect going forward? About half of adults (49%) believe that the Democratic Party has become more liberal in recent years, while only 10% say it has become less liberal. About half of Democrats say their party has stayed about the same ideologically (48%); 24% say it's become more liberal and 16% say it's become less liberal.
30% of Americans expect that in the next few years, the Democratic Party and its candidates will become more liberal; 34% think the party and its candidates will stay about the same, and 11% think they will become less liberal. However, only 20% of Americans say they'd like for the Democratic Party to become more liberal; 20% say they'd like it to stay the same, and 40% say they'd like it to become less liberal. Among Democrats, more want the party to become more liberal (30%) than expect it will (17%).
Perceptions of conservatism within the Republican Party are similar to those of liberalism within the Democratic Party. Many Americans say the Republican Party has become more conservative in recent years, and a significant share expect this pattern to continue. Like Democrats, many Republicans believe their party has remained ideologically consistent, and more hope that it will continue to do so in the future than expect it to.
Related:
- How Americans have reacted to Donald Trump's 2024 victory
- Republicans are more likely than Democrats to be scared about the state of the world
See the results for these YouGov polls:
- November 6 - 9, 2024
- November 9 - 12, 2024 (Economist/YouGov)
Methodology: This article includes results from two online surveys. The first was conducted on November 6 - 9, 2024 among 1,133 U.S. adult citizens. The second was conducted on November 9 - 12, 2024 among 1,743 U.S. adult citizens for the Economist. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of adult U.S. citizens. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample for the first survey is approximately 4%; for the second, it is approximately 3%.
Image: Getty
