Americans hold divided views on the events that defined the 2024 campaign season and the factors that shaped the outcome, according to three separate polls by YouGov in the week after the election (November 6 - 9, November 8 - 10, and November 9 - 12). Many Americans — and particularly Donald Trump voters — attribute the former and future president's victory to inflation and immigration. People who voted for his opponent — Vice President Kamala Harris — also emphasize misinformation, billionaires, racism, and sexism as highly influential. Most Trump voters say they're relieved and most Harris voters say they're sad. Majorities of Democrats and Republicans agree the result was legitimate, which isn't the case about the 2020 election.
Expectations of the outcome
Before the election, most voters expected the candidate they supported to win, according to polling conducted just after the election. This meant that either outcome would surprise a large portion of voters — Harris voters, as it turned out. 74% of Americans who voted for Harris say they expected her to win, either by a small (52%) or large margin (22%). Trump voters were about as confident that he would be victorious, and more thought he would win by a lot: 76% anticipated a Trump win, either by a small (39%) or large margin (37%). (These results are based on what people said after the election, but are consistent with what people said according to polling conducted just before the election.)
Expectations regarding this year's election likely were shaped to some extent by experiences with previous elections. Before Trump's victory in the 2016 election, 90% of Hillary Clinton's supporters thought she would win and 70% of Trump's supporters thought he would win. In 2020, by contrast, Republican supporters were more optimistic than Democrats: 84% of Trump's supporters thought Trump would win, while just 61% of Biden's supporters thought he would win. This year, supporters of Harris and Trump were about equally likely to anticipate a victory for their candidates.
Surprise, relief, and fear: reactions to the election's outcome
Trump's victory came as a surprise to most Harris voters, and as a relief to those who voted for him even though a majority had expected the win. Trump voters say that news of his win made them feel happy and hopeful, while Harris voters reacted with sadness and fear.
An Economist/YouGov survey conducted just after Election Day asked Americans to tell us in their own words how they reacted to news of Trump's victory. We analyzed their responses with the assistance of AI tools.
Trump voters expressed joy and relief upon learning about his 2024 election victory. Many feel hopeful for the future direction of the country. As one voter put it, "Hearing that Donald Trump was the winner of this election gave me the feeling of the weight of the world being lifted from my shoulders. I was ecstatic." Some were surprised. One Trump voter said, "I really felt that Harris would win with all her smoke and mirrors promises." Others hesitated to believe the outcome. One wrote, "I wanted to be very excited but I don't trust the media and wanted a day or two to go by and see what was real."
Harris voters expressed profound disappointment and fear following her loss in the 2024 election. Many said they cried — one said, "I cried, tears of frustration, anger, extreme sadness and hopelessness" — while others described feeling physically ill (another said they were "sick to my stomach and fearful for our future"). Many said they felt disillusionment with the state of American democracy and a sense of betrayal, particularly over voters' choice of a convicted felon over a woman whom they perceived as qualified. One Harris voter said, "I suddenly became so ashamed to be an American and ashamed to be associated with the Americans who voted for this monster."
We also asked respondents in a follow-up survey to select all that apply from a list of emotions. The adjectives included were informed by responses to the earlier open-ended survey question that sought reactions to news of Trump's victory.
Relief (72%) and happiness (69%) are the emotions felt most often by Trump voters in response to the news of his 2024 win, among the emotions included in the survey. Majorities also say they felt hopeful (59%), grateful (58%), and thrilled (54%). Only 13% say they were surprised.
Nearly three-quarters of Harris voters (73%) say Trump's win made them feel sad. 62% say they felt scared. Majorities say they felt sick (56%), angry (56%), or hopeless (56%). Nearly half (47%) say they were shocked.
Among Harris voters, women are more likely than men to say they identified with each of the emotions asked about in the survey. For instance, 84% of women who voted for Harris say they felt sad after learning Trump had won, compared to 58% of men who voted for Harris.
The election news that stood out
Most registered voters (65%) say they closely followed the final results of the presidential election. Many Americans also say they paid close attention to other events throughout the election cycle, including the Harris-Trump debate (62% closely followed it), Trump's assassination attempt (52%), and the Biden-Trump debate (52%).
Harris voters are more likely than Trump voters to say they paid close attention to Harris' and Biden's campaigns, the Democratic National Convention, and Trump's criminal cases. Trump voters were more likely to be deeply tuned into news about Trump's campaign, assassination attempts on Trump, the Republican National Convention, and the Republican primary debates.
More Americans believe the media did a worse job than usual covering the 2024 election (37%) than say they did a better job (13%). One month before the 2024 election, 39% said the media were doing a worse job than usual. While this assessment is relatively grim, it is an improvement on what Americans said just before the 2016 election: At the time, 58% said the media was doing a below-average job.
The decisive factors
What do Americans think led to Trump's victory in 2024? According to our latest Economist/YouGov survey, the largest shares of Americans attributed the 2024 election outcome to inflation and the state of the economy (74% say this was very important) and immigration (65%).
Trump voters are especially likely to believe that inflation and the economy played a large role in the election outcome. More of Trump's voters than Harris' also attribute the election result to immigration, Trump's campaign, and opinions of Trump.
Most Harris voters also think the economy and immigration played a very important role in Trump's victory, but many also emphasize misinformation, the influence of billionaires, racism, and sexism.
Both Harris voters and Trump voters are most likely to say that inflation and the state of the economy was the factor most important to the election outcome, among more than a dozen asked about. Trump voters also cite immigration and the Trump campaign as among the most important factors in the election's outcome. Many Harris voters also point to misinformation, racism and/or sexism, and the influence of billionaires as the most important factors in the election's outcome.
Campaign strategy
A separate survey asked Americans to assess the candidates' strategies during the final weeks of their campaigns. Did they spend more time mobilizing their bases — or on persuading swing voters? Americans are more likely to believe that Harris' campaign focused more on persuading swing voters (42%) than on energizing her core supporters (30%). Harris voters are twice as likely to think she focused more on swing voters (55%) than on her core supporters (25%). Among Harris voters who think she prioritized swing voters, more believe this was a good decision than believe it was a bad decision. Harris voters who believe she focused more on her supporters are divided — equal shares say this was a good decision and say it was a bad decision.
Trump's campaign, by contrast, is more likely to be viewed as having focused its final weeks on engaging his core supporters (43%), rather than on winning over swing voters (35%). But many of Trump's voters disagree: 58% think he prioritized persuading swing voters, while only 31% think he was focused on his core supporters.
Voters in their own words
The November 6 - 9 survey asked Americans to tell us in their own words which factors they thought contributed to Trump's victory and Harris' loss. Answers to these questions, which we analyzed with the assistance of AI tools, tell a similar story — with added context — to the closed-ended survey responses discussed above.
Many Trump voters attribute Trump's victory to his strong policies, his past record, and frustration with the Biden-Harris administration. A common sentiment in their responses is that Trump had a successful first term that voters remembered as one of financial stability and lower costs. As one Trump voter said, "I remember having more money and enough food to eat while he was I'm office." Many voters emphasized Trump's policy positions. One said, "Trump won simply because he ran an issue-based campaign telling us how to solve the problems of inflation, economy, foreign policy and immigration." Others expressed skepticism about the media and political establishment and pointed to Trump’s style as a leader who listens to “real Americans.” One Trump voter said Trump won because he "reached out to the people to understand their needs. He listened to those who feel left out by the Democrats." Harris' approach to hot-button issues, including gender and identity politics, was perceived by Trump voters as divisive and extreme, and her perceived hesitancy to participate in unscripted interviews was seen as evasive.
Among Harris voters, many attributed Trump’s win to sexism and racism, as well as economic dissatisfaction. One Harris voter said, "People are misogynistic. People are racist. People are selfish. People are uneducated and he easily manipulated them." Another Harris voter described Trump's success as stemming from "hate, anger, sexism, and people's belief that grocery prices are the same as the economy." Harris' shortened campaign period — she became the presumptive Democratic nominee in July — also was mentioned as a disadvantage, as well as her inability or unwillingness to distance herself from the Biden administration’s record. Some of Harris' voters also believe that she was held to a different standard. One said, "The media required Harris to be flawless while allowing Trump to be lawless, and demanded she provide policy details while Trump got away with 'a concept of a plan.' " Others pointed to Trump's charisma. One Harris voter said, "People want to emulate Donald Trump — to be able to do whatever they want with impunity. To assault, cheat, steal, and lie. He is an aspirational personality."
Bipartisan agreement on the legitimacy of Trump's win
Most Americans (82%) believe that Trump is the legitimate winner of the 2024 election. This includes 65% of Democrats. About as many Democrats — 63% — say they believe Trump's win in 2016 was legitimate. Only 28% of Republicans, by contrast, view Biden's 2020 win as legitimate.
— David Montgomery contributed to this article
Related:
- After the 2024 election, voters share hopes and fears for a second Trump term
- What do Americans think will be most important to the outcome of the 2024 election?
See the results for these YouGov polls:
- November 6 - 9, 2024
- November 8 - 10, 2024
- November 9 - 12, 2024 (Economist/YouGov)
Methodology: This article includes results from three online surveys. The first was conducted on November 6 - 9, 2024 among 1,133 U.S. adult citizens. The second was conducted on November 8 - 10, 2024 among 1,144 U.S. adult citizens. The third was conducted on November 9 - 12, 2024 among 1,743 U.S. adult citizens for the Economist. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of adult U.S. citizens. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample for each of the first two surveys is approximately 4%; for the third, it is approximately 3%.
Image: Getty
