The economy and the U.S.-Mexico border situation top the list of events and issues that Americans expect to be most likely to play a very important role in the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. A survey conducted roughly a week before Election Day asked Americans to consider the importance of 26 issues to the election's outcome. The events included were identified in part through an earlier survey asking respondents to tell us in their own words what shaped this year's race.
The largest share for any single issue or event — 70% of Americans — say that inflation and the state of the economy ultimately will play a very important role in the outcome of the election. Roughly half of people rate as important each of the following: the U.S.-Mexico border situation (55%), the Supreme Court's overturning of abortion rights (50%), Joe Biden withdrawing from the race (50%), and Kamala Harris replacing Biden (50%).
Significant shares also classify as very important the debates between Trump and Harris (40%) and Biden and Harris (34%). Far fewer say the vice presidential debate (22%) or Republican primary debates (18%) were very important.
Americans are about evenly split about who they think will win the election. In the last Economist/YouGov poll prior to the election, 38% said they expected Trump to win, while 35% thought Harris would. Supporters of Harris and Trump tend to believe the candidate they support will win: 73% of Harris' supporters expected a Harris victory, compared to 75% of Trump's supporters.
Harris' supporters also are more likely to predict that events and issues that are beneficial to their candidate will have a bigger impact on the election's outcome. Harris supporters are much more likely than Trump supporters to expect Harris becoming the nominee, the overturning of abortion rights, as well as Biden withdrawing from the race to play a very important role in how things turn out. They also are far likelier to emphasize Trump's age and mental state, as well as his criminal convictions.
Far more Trump supporters than Harris supporters think the border situation will be very important to the election outcome. Trump's speeches and rallies — as well as assassination attempts against him — also are more likely to be emphasized by his supporters than by Harris'.
The survey also asked respondents which of the 26 events they thought would have the most impact on the election outcome. The largest share of Americans (29%) — and of Trump supporters (48%) — anticipate inflation will have the most impact. Democrats are most likely to say Harris replacing Biden (22%) or the Supreme Court's overturning of abortion rights.
Related:
- Most Americans say it’s likely Donald Trump will refuse to concede if he loses the election
- Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump narrowly in YouGov's final MRP 2024 presidential estimates
- Harris vs. Trump on the issues: Whose policies do voters prefer?
— Carl Bialik contributed to this article
See the results for this YouGov poll
Methodology: This poll was conducted online on October 30 - November 1, 2024 among 1,143 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of adult U.S. citizens. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 4%.
Image: Getty
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