A YouGov survey conducted in the final week before Election Day finds that many Americans don’t intend to accept the results of the presidential election as legitimate if their preferred candidate doesn’t win. Most Americans think it’s somewhat or very likely Donald Trump will refuse to concede if he loses, and about one-third would see this refusal as a major threat to democracy in the U.S.
If Kamala Harris is declared the winner of the presidential election, 48% of Trump supporters say they will not accept her as the legitimate president. If Trump is declared the winner, 33% of Harris supporters say they will not accept him as the legitimate president.
58% of Americans say their opinion is closer to the statement “It’s possible that Kamala Harris could win the election” while 30% say their opinion is closer to, “Kamala Harris can only win if the election is rigged.” Regarding the equivalent statements about Donald Trump, 67% lean more toward the view that it’s possible he could legitimately win the election while 18% are more inclined toward saying he can only win if the election is rigged.
Nearly half (47%) of Americans say it is very likely Trump will refuse to concede the presidential election if Harris is declared the winner. Fewer Americans thought this about the 2016 election: Just before Election Day that year, 30% thought it was very likely that Trump would refuse to concede if Hillary Clinton were declared the winner.
Fewer Americans (16%) say it is very likely Harris will refuse to concede than think so about Trump; 17% think it is somewhat likely Harris will refuse to concede. 31% of Republicans and 7% of Democrats say it is very likely Harris will refuse to concede; 24% of Republicans and 12% of Democrats say it is somewhat likely.
If Harris wins the election and Trump doesn’t concede, 35% of Americans think it would be a major threat to democracy in the U.S. About as many (34%) say it would cause problems, but not be a major threat to democracy, while 14% say it would not cause many problems. Democrats (49%) are more likely than Republicans (23%) to say it would be a major threat to democracy in the U.S. if Trump doesn’t concede in the event of a Harris victory.
If Trump wins the election and Harris doesn’t concede, 22% of Americans think it would be a major threat to democracy in the U.S. while 37% think it would cause problems, but not be a major threat to democracy. One in five (20%) say it would not cause many problems.
Republicans are about equally likely to say that if either candidate refuses to concede, it would be a major threat to democracy (22% for Harris and 23% for Trump).
If Harris were to win the presidential election, 9% of Americans — including 13% of Republicans — think violent action by citizens would be justified. Far more Americans (74%) say it would not be justified. If Trump were to win the presidential election, 6% of Americans say violent action by citizens would be justified and 78% say it would not be.
Whether citizens choose to act violently likely is influenced by the rhetoric around their party and candidate. 40% of Americans, including 73% of Democrats and 7% of Republicans, say Republican politicians encourage their supporters to act violently. 26% of Americans, including 4% of Democrats and 56% of Republicans, say Democratic politicians encourage their supporters to act violently.
Figures are similar for the parties' presidential candidates. 44% of Americans, including 79% of Democrats and 8% of Republicans, think Trump encourages his supporters to act violently. 23% of Americans, including 3% of Democrats and 52% of Republicans, think Harris encourages her supporters to act violently.
— Taylor Orth and Carl Bialik contributed to this article
Related:
- Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump narrowly in YouGov's final MRP 2024 presidential estimates
- Most Republicans say it’s likely poll workers will attempt to tamper with the 2024 election
- How views of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump changed after their debate
See the results for this YouGov poll
Methodology: This YouGov poll was conducted online on October 29 - 31, 2024 among 1,149 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of adult U.S. citizens. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 4%.
Image: Getty (Tasos Katopodis / Stringer)
