This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers Donald Trump's presidential transition, billionaires, the Democratic Party, the flu and COVID-19, Luigi Mangione, presidential pardons, TIME Magazine's Person and Athlete of the Year, holiday and New Years' celebrations, and college football.
The Trump transition
- While one in three Americans (34%) are enthusiastic about the next four years with Donald Trump as president, nearly as many (29%) are upset about it. A majority of Democrats (57%) are upset, while 73% of Republicans are enthusiastic
- More Americans strongly or somewhat approve than disapprove of the way each of Trump and Biden are handling the transition
- Democrats overwhelmingly disapprove of Trump’s handling of the transition (67% disapprove and 17% approve). A smaller majority of Republicans disapprove of Biden’s handling of the transition (54% to 33%)
- So far, Trump’s nominees to major government positions have gotten mixed receptions. The recent nomination of two women, Kari Lake to head Voice of America, and Kimberley Guilfoyle as Ambassador to Greece, are each slightly more likely to receive approval than disapproval
- Opinions of Lake and Guilfoyle vary by gender: 46% of men but just 28% of women strongly or somewhat approve of Lake's appointment; 41% of men but just 24% of women approve of Guilfoyle's appointment
Transition donors from the tech world
- Mark Zuckerberg, head of Meta, and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos recently announced donations to Trump's inauguration fund. Both tech leaders are viewed more negatively than positively by Americans. Zuckerberg receives very or somewhat unfavorable ratings from majorities of Democrats and Republicans
- Bezos is also seen negatively, though more by Democrats than Republicans. Among Republicans, Bezos' image, as well as Zuckerberg's, has improved dramatically since 2022
What should Democrats do?
- Once Trump is president, should Democrats in Congress work with him on policies they agree on, or oppose all of his policies? Democrats overwhelmingly want their party’s representatives in government to work with the new president when their goals are aligned: 68% say that, while 18% want Democrats in Congress to oppose all of Trump's policies
- In last week's survey, we asked Democrats to tell us in their own words who they want to be the leader of the Democratic Party. We calculated the names mentioned most often, and asked Democrats in this week's poll to tell us which of those they would prefer
- Of the dozen names offered, the largest share selected former president Barack Obama (21%). Nearly as many — 20% — chose Kamala Harris. No one else reached double digits
- House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries was chosen by 8%, Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Bernie Sanders were each chosen by 7%, and Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez was chosen by 6%
- Most Democrats (56%) believe American democracy isn’t working too well –- or not at all well. 44% say it is working at least somewhat well
Vaccine safety and reception
- Four in 10 American adults (41%) say they have ever tested positive for COVID-19. Republicans (46%) are more likely than Democrats (36%) to say they have tested positive for COVID
- But the flu may be more of a concern than COVID-19 is: Americans are slightly more likely to be very or somewhat worried about coming down with the flu this year (40%) than about contracting COVID-19 (36%)
- More than a third of Americans (35%) say they have received a flu shot this year, and 15% say they will get one. For COVID-19, the comparable figures are 27% having gotten a shot, and 10% saying they will
- Nearly two-thirds of Democrats (63%) have received a COVID-19 shot this year or say they will get one, while only 21% of Republicans say the same
- Majorities of both Democrats (84%) and Republicans (63%) view vaccines generally as very or somewhat safe
Luigi Mangione
- Americans are twice as likely to view Luigi Mangione — who was charged with the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson — very or somewhat unfavorably (43%) than favorably (23%).
- But adults under 30 are more likely to view Mangione favorably than unfavorably (39% to 30%). Those between the ages of 30 and 44 are evenly divided (28% to 29%)
- Liberals are much more likely to view Mangione favorably than are conservatives
Pardons
- Americans overall are about equally likely to say Biden and Trump have used pardons inappropriately (46% vs. 42%) though Democrats and Republicans evaluate each president differently
- Last week, 48% of Americans said Biden’s pardon of his son Hunter was the wrong thing, while 28% said it was the right thing. This week, more view Biden's pardons and commutations of 1,500 people convicted of non-violent crimes as right (39%) than wrong (27%)
Person/Athlete of the Year
- TIME Magazine’s choice of Donald Trump as Person of the Year is strongly or somewhat approved of by roughly half the public (49%), while more than a third (37%) disapprove
- Opinion on this choice is partisan: 87% of Republicans approve, compared with 18% of Democrats
- There is no partisan split when it comes to TIME’s choice for Athlete of the Year: Similar shares of Republicans and Democrats approve of the choice of Caitlin Clark.
- More men (62%) than women (47%) approve of the selection of Clark
Holiday celebrations
- This holiday season, most Americans will be celebrating, whether it be Christmas, Hanukkah or Kwanzaa. Nine in 10 Republicans will be celebrating a winter holiday, compared with 79% of Democrats
- 21% of Americans — including more Democrats (25%) than Republicans (18%) — say there has ever been a political argument at a holiday celebration they've attended.
- Liberals (34%) and people with family incomes above $100,000 a year (31%) are especially likely to have been to a holiday celebration that involved an argument about politics
- Only 9% of Americans have had a holiday dinner ruined by a political argument, including twice as many Democrats (14%) as Republicans (6%)
- New Year celebrations are more important to the young: Two-thirds of adults under 30 plan to celebrate the New Year with others, compared with just one in four of those 65 and older
- That’s true for New Year’s resolutions, too: 52% of adults under 30 say they plan to make resolutions this year, compared to just 17% of those 65 and older
College football playoffs
- One in three adults say they will watch at least one of the NCAA football playoff games this year, including 40% of men and 24% of women
- Of the 12 teams vying for the title, viewers are most likely to say they want the winner to be the University of Texas, though just 13% of viewers are on Texas’ side
- The field is broad: 9% each would like to see the University of Georgia, Ohio State University, the University of Oregon, and Penn State emerge victorious
Throughout this report, some numbers may appear to be off by 1 because of rounding
— Taylor Orth contributed to this article
See the toplines and crosstabs for the December 15 - 17, 2024 Economist/YouGov Poll
Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,553 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given around November 8, 2024, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (31% Democratic, 32% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3.5%
Image: Getty (Stephen Maturen / Stringer)
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