YouGov’s final update of the 2025 Canadian federal election MRP model suggests that the Liberals will win a modest majority on Monday, April 28.
Our final projection is that the Liberals will win between 162 seats and 204 seats, with a central estimate of 185.
The model estimates have moved somewhat since our projection Wednesday, but tell a consistent story: Mark Carney looks set to return to 24 Sussex with a majority of the 343 Canadian House of Commons seats.
A hung parliament, in which neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives win 172 seats or more, does remain a very real possibility. Across our model simulations, the Liberals win a majority in around 90%. No party wins a majority in around 10%, while the Conservatives win a majority in less than 1%.
The Conservatives we anticipate to fall somewhere between 121 seats and 155 seats, with a central projection of 136. The model continues to expect the New Democratic Party (NDP) to struggle, with Jagmeet Singh’s party dropping by 22 seats compared to the 2021 result to just three now, and the leader himself looking in grave danger of losing his seat of Burnaby Central.
Elsewhere, there are two significant changes from our Wednesday projections.
Firstly, we now expect the Greens to win two seats, up from one in our previous model. A total of two for the Greens would match their 2021 performance. We believe the party currently is ahead in Both Saanich—Gulf Islands and Kitchener Centre.
Secondly, the projected fortunes of Bloc Québécois have diminished. We now expect Yves-François Blanchet’s party to win between 9 and 25 seats, with a median projection of 18. This is a drop of five seats from our Wednesday projection.
In terms of vote shares, the model’s central projections have the Liberals on 42%, the Conservatives on 39%, the NDP on 10%, the Bloc on 5%, the Greens on 2%, the People’s Party on 2%, and Others on 1%. As with the seat projections, the national vote share projections also come with intervals within which we believe there is a 90% probability that each party will finish up.
The Liberals have strengthened their position somewhat compared to Wednesday’s model, particularly in Quebec but also in the key battleground of the Greater Toronto Area. For example, we now have Carney’s party ahead of their Conservative rivals by a fraction in the ultra-marginal ‘905’ seat of Newmarket—Aurora.
For the Conservatives, the result looks set to be extremely disappointing compared to the position they were in as recently as the start of this year, with a large polling lead over the incumbent Liberals and a much more popular leader in Pierre Poilievre than then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
While it had looked like Poilievre could even be in trouble in his riding of Carleton, our final MRP model suggests that he will be returned to the House of Commons fairly comfortably.
Under Carney’s short tenure as leader, the Liberals have turned the election on its head and look set to secure another term in office. The polling movement in the Liberals’ favour began shortly after Trudeau announced his resignation and Donald Trump took office in the White House for the second time.
Image: Getty (Minas Panagiotakis / Stringer)
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