Republicans Still Have the Voting Enthusiasm

The Republican Party’s advantage in this fall’s Congressional elections continues to come from their supporters’ greater enthusiasm – and greater willingness to say they are likely to get to the polls on Election Day. If all registered voters cast ballots in November, the race for U.S. House of Representatives could be close – as it has been for at least a month or so. In this week’s Economist/YouGov Poll, 48% of registered voters say that they would vote or are leaning towards voting for the Republican candidate for U.S. House of Representatives; 44% would vote or lean towards voting Democratic.

But when enthusiasm and expressed willingness to vote are taken into account, the Republicans gain. Among those who say they are likely to vote this fall, the Republicans hold a nine-point lead: 52% of likely voters would support Republican candidates, 43% Democratic ones.

Democrats are still lagging far behind Republicans when it comes to engagement in the fall campaign. Last month, 74% of Republicans and 45% of Democrats said they had discussed the campaign with friends or family, a gap of 29 points. This month, the gap has shrunk, but only a little, to 16 points. 71% of Republicans, and 55% of Democrats have talked about the campaign.

There has been less movement when it comes to attentiveness: in this week’s poll, 50% of Republicans and 31% of Democrats say they are following news about the campaign very closely – a 19-point difference. Last month, the difference was just about as large at 23 points – also favoring the Republicans.

Republicans claim that they are simply more enthusiastic about voting this year than they usually are: 55% say that. Just 8% of Republicans admit being less enthusiastic than usual (something twice as many Democrats admit). Only 24% of Democrats now say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than usual. And that 31-point enthusiasm gap may be fueling Republican expectations.

Enthusiasm about voting is increasing – but only among Republicans. Two weeks ago, just 46% of Republicans and only 21% of Democrats claimed to be more enthusiastic about voting this year than they usually are. Democratic enthusiasm rose only three points in the same period.

Surprisingly, independents are more enthusiastic about voting this year than Democrats. And their level of engagement is closer to that of Republicans: 65% of independents say they have talked about the campaign in recent days.

Republicans continue to lead on issues like government spending, immigration, national defense, and terrorism. Democrats hold a clear lead when it comes to the environment and energy policy, as well as on two social issues: abortion and gay marriage. But on the biggest issue – the economy – Americans give a five-point edge to the Republicans when asked which party is closer to their own views on handling the economy. And Americans divide evenly when asked which party is closer to them on health care.

One thing the Democrats can point to: while Americans don’t like either party very much, they dislike the Democrats a little bit less. More hold an unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party than think unfavorably of the Democratic Party.

There is one big philosophical difference in the way Democrats and Republicans look at the way elected officials should govern: whether they should compromise to get things done or stick to their principles, no matter what. Overall, there is a fairly even division – 52% of Americans want their Congressional representative to stick to principles and 48% would accept compromise. Democrats support compromise by two to one. Republicans overwhelming want someone who sticks to their principles. Independents divide evenly.