November 04, 2012, 4:30 PM GMT+0

Democratic President Barack Obama holds a marginal, 4-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Nevada, 49% Obama to 45% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 732 likely voters statewide. 

In Nevada (Oct 31-Nov 3):
Romney enjoys a large lead among likely voters who are Independents, 48% for Romney and 35% for Obama.
Obama enjoys a solid 54%-40% advantage in Clark County (Las Vegas).  Romney leads big in Washoe County (54%-41%) and in the rest of the state (61%-34%).
Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)
  Total Independents
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-
Nov 3 
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-
Nov 3
Barack Obama 51% 50% 49% 35% 34% 35%
Mitt Romney 44% 45% 45% 52% 49% 48%

Republican candidate Dean Heller holds a 49%-40% lead over Democratic Senate candidate Shelley Berkley, in a seat being vacated by retiring Republican Senator John Ensign.

The poll was conducted online October 31-November 3, 2012

Sampling method: Respondents were selected using sample matching.  A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2010 American Community Survey. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the Registration and Voting Supplements of the 2008 and 2010 Current Population Surveys and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Some respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov¹s panel, then recontacted on October 4-11 and again on October 31-November 3.  Others were selected for the first time on October 31-November 3.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 732 likely voters. Margin of error ±4.1% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).

Click here for October 31-November 3 results (likely voters).