November 04, 2012, 4:30 PM GMT+0

Democratic President Barack Obama clings to a marginal lead in the race for Ohio’s Electoral College votes over Republican challenger Mitt Romney, 49% Obama to 46% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 1,620 likely voters statewide.   

In Ohio (Oct 31-Nov 3):
Romney is favored by Independents in Ohio as he enjoys an 11-point advantage over Obama (50%-39%). 
Obama is hardly contested in the Cleveland area, enjoying a 64%-30% lead there among likely voters. The President also holds marginal leads in eastern Ohio (49%-44%) and in the Columbus area (51% Obama-45% Romney). Romney leads by a wide margin in southern Ohio and the Cincinnati area, 57% Romney-40% Obama, and a narrow lead in northwest Ohio/Toledo (51%-43%).
Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)
  Total Independents
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-
Nov 3 
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-
Nov 3 
Barack Obama 47% 50% 49% 35% 33% 39%
Mitt Romney 44% 46% 46% 49% 56% 50%

Incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown holds a 48%-46% nominal lead over Republican Senate challenger Josh Mandel.

The poll was conducted online October 31-November 3, 2012.

Sampling method: Respondents were selected using sample matching.  A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2010 American Community Survey. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the Registration and Voting Supplements of the 2008 and 2010 Current Population Surveys and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Some respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov¹s panel, then recontacted on October 4-11 and again on October 31-November 3.  Others were selected for the first time on October 31-November 3.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 1,620 likely voters. Margin of error ±3.0% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).

Click here for October 31-November 3 results (likely voters).