Democratic President Barack Obama leads nominally over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Virginia, 48% Obama to 46% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 1,497 likely voters statewide.

In Virginia (Oct 31-Nov 3):
Obama has a marginal lead among likely voters who are Independents, 44% for Obama and 41% for Romney.
Obama enjoys a solid 55%-36% advantage in the Beltway suburbs of DC, and leads marginally 51%-46% in the Northern Virginia suburbs that are further out from DC.  Obama also holds a marginal advantage in the traditional bellweather Tidewater region, Obama 50%-Romney 45%.   Obama leads in Richmond and the rest of the east, 49% Obama-41% Romney, and Romney easily carried central and western Virginia, 59% Romney-36% Obama.
Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)
  Total Independents
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-
Nov 3
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-
Nov 3
Barack Obama 48% 46% 48% 38% 34% 44%
Mitt Romney 44% 45% 46% 46% 51% 41%

The race for the U.S. Senate continues to be a barn-burner, at 46% for former Republican Senator George Allen and 46% for former Democratic governor Tim Kaine. 

The poll was conducted online October 31-November 3, 2012.

Sampling method: Respondents were selected using sample matching.  A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2010 American Community Survey. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the Registration and Voting Supplements of the 2008 and 2010 Current Population Surveys and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Some respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov¹s panel, then recontacted on October 4-11 and again on October 31-November 3.  Others were selected for the first time on October 31-November 3.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 1,497 likely voters. Margin of error ±2.7% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results

Click here for October 4-11 results

Click here for October 31-November 3 results

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