November 04, 2012, 4:30 PM GMT+0

Democratic President Barack Obama has moved out to a marginal lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Wisconsin, 50% Obama to 46% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 1,225 likely voters statewide.

In Wisconsin (Oct 31-Nov 3):
The vote is close among likely voters who are Independents, 45% Romney-44% Obama.
Obama enjoys a solid 65%-33% lead in Milwaukee County and a similar 64%-31% lead in the southwestern part of the Badger state.  Romney easily wins the southeast excluding Milwaukee County by 56%-40% and Romney wins the northwestern corner of the state, 54%-41%.  The contest is in the northeast, where Romney holds a marginal 49%-46% lead over Obama.
Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)
  Total Independents
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-
Nov 3
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-
Nov 3
Barack Obama 48% 51% 50% 42% 47% 44%
Mitt Romney 48% 47% 46% 52% 49% 45%

In the race for Senate, Democratic U.S. Representative Tammy Baldwin clings to a nominal 48%-47% lead among likely voters over Republican former Governor Tommy Thompson.  

The poll was conducted online October 31-November 3, 2012

Sampling method: Respondents were selected using sample matching.  A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2010 American Community Survey. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the Registration and Voting Supplements of the 2008 and 2010 Current Population Surveys and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Some respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov¹s panel, then recontacted on October 4-11 and again on October 31-November 3.  Others were selected for the first time on October 31-November 3.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 1,225 likely voters. Margin of error ±3.1% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).

Click here for October 31-November 3 results (likely voters).