The latest CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker poll among likely voters in Ohio shows that President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden are tied at 47%.
With one month to go before Election Day, the data shows that 5% are not sure who to vote for and 2% plan to cast their ballot for someone else. The president holds a lead among the state’s Independent voters (46% to 40%) although one in 11 (9%) are still undecided. Almost all of the poll was carried out before news of President Trump’s positive test for COVID-19.
More than four in five (85%) likely voters in Ohio have decided how they will vote, with 11% saying they probably won’t change their choice, and 4% saying they still might. Almost all Democrats (87%) and Republicans (86%) have decided, as have around four in five (79%) Independents.
YouGov’s data shows that two in five (39%) will vote in person on Election Day, with approaching three in five (58%) Republicans planning on doing so, as well as two in five (39%) of Independents and one in five (20%) Democrats. Around the same number (41%) of likely voters in the state plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, including almost three in five (58%) Democrats, two in five (42%) Independents and a quarter (24%) of Republicans. One in five (20%) plan to vote in person before Election Day.
In the week the president’s COVID-19 infection was announced, three in five (62%) likely voters in Ohio say that the coronavirus outbreak will be a major factor in how they cast their ballot. This is more the case among Democrats (87%) and Independents (52%) than Republicans (45%). Around a third of GOP voters (34%) and Independents (31%) consider the pandemic a minor factor in their choice for president, compared to just 11% of Democrats.
However, the poll shows that more likely voters consider the economy (83%) and healthcare (74%) to be major factors in how they will vote.
Methodology: This survey was conducted on behalf of CBS News by YouGov between September 30-October 2, 2020. They are based on representative samples of 1,128 registered voters in Ohio. The margin of error for registered voters is ±3.7 points in Ohio.