Trump arrest poll: 56% of Americans approve of the charges, but fewer think a conviction is likely

Linley SandersData Journalist
Carl BialikU.S. Politics Editor and Vice President of Data Science
Taylor OrthDirector of Survey Data Journalism
April 05, 2023, 12:56 AM GMT+0

On Tuesday, former President Donald Trump was arrested in New York and charged with 34 felony counts for falsifying business records in relation to payments he allegedly made to conceal an affair with porn star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election. Trump pleaded not guilty to all counts.

Polling conducted by YouGov in the hours after Trump's arrest finds that more Americans strongly or somewhat approve (56%) than strongly or somewhat disapprove (31%) of the charges filed against Trump. While Democrats overwhelmingly approve of the charges (84% approve; 9% disapprove), Republicans are more likely to disapprove — though by a smaller margin (32% approve; 61% disapprove).

Now that Trump has been charged, the next question is whether or not he will be convicted. On this, there is little consensus: 14% say a conviction is very likely, 25% say it is somewhat likely, 22% say it is not very likely, and 23% say it's not likely at all. Democrats (58%) are about twice as likely as Republicans (26%) to say it is very or somewhat likely that Trump will be convicted.

How will the charges against Trump affect his 2024 presidential run? Americans are about as likely to say the charges will make him a stronger candidate (32%) as they are to say they'll make him a weaker candidate (29%); 21% say the charges will make no difference to the strength of his candidacy. While Democrats are more likely to say the charges weaken Trump's candidacy (40%) than strengthen it (18%), Republicans are far less likely to say it weakens Trump's candidacy (17%) than strengthens it (58%).

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