Democrats Ahead In Governor Race While Republicans Lead The Senate Race in Florida

October 29, 2010, 5:02 AM GMT+0

Democratic candidate Alex Sink leads Republican Rick Scott in the contest for Governor, by 7 points among all voters and by 3 points among likely voters. In the Senate race, Republican candidate Marco Rubio leads former Republican Governor Charlie Crist (who is running for Senate as an Independent) by 6 points among all voters but by a commanding 11 points among likely voters . The Democratic candidate, Kendrick Meek, wins just 15% of the vote among all voters, 18% among likely voters.


Registered VotersLikely Voters

Kendrick Meek



Marco Rubio



Charlie Crist




Registered VotersLikely Voters

Alex Sink



Rick Scott



Independent Voters And Candidates Play Large Role In Florida Elections

In the tightly fought Florida Gubernatorial race, movement of Independent voters (and young voters) to Sink may prove decisive. Sink leads Scott among likely Independent voters by 54%-32%, and she leads by 45%-33% among likely voters under age 30. In the Senate race, Rubio leads because he corrals 84% of likely Republican voters, and gets his fair share of Independent voters in the three-way race (31% of likely voters who are Inde- pendents support Rubio). Independent candidate Crist gets just 52% of likely Independent voters, but also wins 40% of likely Democratic voters. Democrat Meek just manages a tie with Crist among likely Democratic voters (41% Meek-40% Crist), and Meek wins few votes among likely Independent voters (9%). In a race pitting a Hispanic Republican against an African-American Democrat, the white Independent candidate Crist wins 32% of the non-white likely voters, to 27% for Meek and 20% for Rubio.


Interviews with 1000 registered voters, including 826 likely voters, were conducted October 25-28, 2010, online using YouGov’s PollingPoint panel. YouGov uses a matched sample methodology that selects respondents to match the Florida registered voter population in terms of demographics (age, race, gender, education, employment status, income, marital status, children), past voting behavior, and political attitudes (interest in politics, party registration, and ideology).

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