In the final days before the election, Republicans have an eight point advantage (52%) over the Democrats (44%) among likely voters when leaners are included. Only 3 percent say they are undecided. When leaners aren’t included, the situation doesn’t get much better for Democrats, as Republicans hold a 6 point lead among solid likely voters.
Generic House Vote
| Registered Voters | Likely Voters | |
|---|---|---|
Republican | 40% | 49% |
Lean Republican | 3% | 3% |
Lean Democrat | 4% | 1% |
Democrat | 42% | 43% |
Not Sure | 7% | 3% |
Republican Lead Among Independents And Most Key Subgroups
Republicans hold a 16 point advantage over Democrats among the key swing group of likely voters who consider themselves Independents. Democrats are even trailing Republicans among women, a more traditionally Democratic leaning group, by 5 points. Democrats lead Republicans among younger voters by 18 points and among non-whites by 51 points. Republicans lead Democrats among white voters by 19 points and among voters aged 65 points by 17 points. Both Democrats and Republicans have "come home" in the final days before the election, with 92 percent of self-identified Democrats supporting the generic Democratic House Candidate and 95 percent of Republicans supporting their candidate.
Methodology
Interviews with 1800 registered voters, including 1155 likely voters, were conducted October 23-26, 2010, online using YouGov’s PollingPoint panel. YouGov uses a matched sample methodology that selects respondents to match the national registered voter population in terms of demographics (age, race, gender, education, employment status, income, marital status, children), past voting behavior, and political attitudes (interest in politics, party registration, and ideology).
Image Source: flickr (Stewart Butterfield)
