This is a summary of a YouGov/Economist Poll conducted June 24-27, 2016. The sample is 1300 general population respondents with a Margin of Error of ±3.9%.
GENERAL ELECTION (among registered voters):
If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, and Gary Johson, the Libertarian, who would you vote for?
- Hillary Clinton: 40%
- Donald Trump: 35%
- Gary Johnson: 8%
- Someone else: 7%
- Not sure yet: 8%
- Probably won't vote: 3%
CONGRESS (among registered voters):
If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for...
- The Democratic Party candidate: 42%
- The Republican Party candidate: 36%
- Other: 4%
- Not sure: 16%
- I would not vote: 3%
Approval of Obama as president (among all adults):
- Approve: 47% (0)
- Disapprove: 49% (+1)
Among registered voters, 43% approve of Obama and 54% disapprove.
Approval of Congress:
- Approve: 14% (+3)
- Disapprove: 59% (-5)
Direction of the country:
- Right direction: 26% (0)
- Disapprove: 63% (0)
- 35% of registered voters are confident in Hillary Clinton's ability to deal wisely with the U.S. economy, compared to 37% for Donald Trump
- 34% of voters are confident in Clinton on terrorism; 34% are also confident in Trump on the issue
- 42% of voters think none of the foreign leaders in the world respect Donald Trump, twice the number who say so for Clinton (21%)
- 48% of voters would "never consider voting for" Clinton, against 50% who say the same for Trump
- Americans are divided over whether the UK's exit from the EU will be good for the United States (26% say good, 30% bad), and also divided over whether it will be good for the UK (29% good, 31% bad)
- Only 29% of Americans think the surprise Brexit result suggests Donald Trump is more likely to win in November. 10% think it suggests he's less likely, 34% say neither, and 30% are not sure.
The U.S. Constitution
- 41% of Americans rate the First Amendment (freedom of religion, expression and assembly) as the "most important". The Second (right to bear arms) and Fourth (right to privacy) are tied for second place with 16% each.
- Among voters who support Donald Trump for president, the Second Amendment beats the First, 37%-30%.
- By 29% to 48% Americans tend to say even a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States would not be allowed according to the First Amendment.
Race and affirmative action
- 71% of Americans say racism is a serious problem in the United States, including 35% who say "very serious"
- At 64%, African-Americans are more than twice as likely as whites (27%) to say racism is very serious
- Americans are divided 34% in favor, 38% against affirmative action for racial minorities, with support divided along racial lines.
- 59% of Americans say racial profiling by police is "a problem".
- 40% approve of the NYPD's stop-and-frisk policy, 37% disapprpove.
- However, by 43% to 33% Americans approve of racial profiling in combating terrorism.
- 47% have a favorable opinion of the US Supreme Court, 36% unfavorable. In March 2016, YouGov found a similar breakdown: 48% favorable, 34% unfavorable.
- Americans approve of the decision upholding the University of Texas's affirmative action policy by 47%-33%
- The public also approves of the decision blocking President Obama's executive action on immigration by a narrower margin, 46%-40%. However, Hispanics disapprove of the deicsion, by 56%-28%.
- The decision to make admissable in court evidence collected by police in an illegal stop is less popular: 34% approve, 48% disapprove.
Additional questions and detailed demographic breakdowns: PDF
Topline summary: PDF
The Tracking Report: PDF