Gingrich Leads at 31%, as Volatile Tea Party Republicans Swing Away from Cain

The “smart money” might still be on Mitt Romney to win the Republican nomination for President, but he has rarely led in more than a year’s worth of weekly tracking of this race by the Economist/YouGov poll. Historically, the race for the out-party’s nomination rarely takes final form much earlier than the late summer or Labor Day of the off-year leading into the Election Year, and Republicans in 2011 were no exception. “No preference” led in polls until August 20, 2011, when Economist/YouGov began to screen for those who were able to say they were likely to participate in the Republican Presidential primary or caucus in their states.

Rick Perry was the choice of both Tea Party followers and those who do not support the Tea Party among likely Republican primary/caucus participants throughout most of late August and September, but Herman Cain became the Tea Party choice in October, while Romney supplanted Perry as the leading choice among those who do not support the Tea Party as of October.

In this week’s poll, for the first time, Gingrich took over the lead from Cain among Tea Party supporters. Tea Party supporters have been volatile in their preferences, with 44% of them supporting Perry right after Labor Day, but 50% supporting Cain by mid-October. In this week’s poll, conducted November 19-22, 2011, 43% choose Gingrich among the Tea Party supporters likely to participate in the Republican primaries/caucuses, only 19% Cain, just 5% Perry (trailing even Romney, at 12%, among Tea Party Republican primary/caucus participants). Romney leads among Republican primary/caucus participants who do not support the Tea Party, with 26% Romney and Gingrich close behind at 22% among those not supporting the Tea Party.

With his base among the less-volatile, non-Tea Party Republican primary/caucus participants, Romney’s support has also been less volatile, remaining in a “narrow trading range” for the past year, never much higher than the low 20s, nor much lower than the low teens, since August. His opponents have been on a much wilder ride: Gingrich from the low single digits to the low 30s, Cain from single digit support to the mid 30s, Perry from the high 20s to just 5% today among all likely Republican primary/caucus participants. These other candidates have been buffeted by the roiling winds blowing among Tea Party followers moving from one favorite to another on an almost weekly basis, while Romney could count on steady if uninspiring support from a base among those who do not support the Tea Party.

Economist/YouGov poll archives can be found here

Photo source: Press Association