Populist Problem for Romney.
Can the Establishment’s favorite win over supporters of the downscale insurgent candidate? In 2008, Barack Obama rarely succeeded in winning voters from Clinton’s populist base. In 2012, Romney has not yet succeeded in winner voters away from Santorum’s populist army. But it may be delegate math, not Establishment-vs.-populist tendencies, which will cause Romney to fail to clear the field of opponents before his Tampa national convention, as Obama did in 2008 by pushing Clinton from the field before his Denver national convention.
After Barack Obama won 11 straight contests after Super Tuesday in 2008, many in the Democratic Establishment wanted to help pressure Clinton out of the race before the Denver national convention. But Obama did not help his cause in primaries in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania when he could not find a way to reach beyond his base of African Americans-plus-white-elites to win the hearts and votes of populist downscale white and Hispanic Democrats. Now in 2012, Republican Mitt Romney is the candidate of the higher-income, better-educated elite of his party, with little ability to win Republican primary and caucus contests in the South and Midwest. What his base finds appealing about Romney does not allow him to extend his appeal to the populist elements of the party rallying to Rick Santorum. Santorum and Romney each claim a clear lead over the other on defining characteristics. Both are credited by most Republican nomination contest voters with being intelligent, patriotic and religious, but Romney gets credit for being experienced (59% of those who vote in Republican nominating contests), while Santorum does not. Santorum gets credit for being honest (54% of those who vote in Republican primaries/caucuses), and sincere (51%), while Romney does not, according to the Economist/YouGov poll (week of March 3, 2012). Romney’s characteristic is that of an Establishment candidate; Santorum’s more those of a populist insurgent.
Romney heads into the home stretch with a very large lead over Santorum in delegates. But Obama, who had only a measly two dozen more delegates than Clinton after Super Tuesday 2008, had a credible predictive spreadsheet demonstrating he would win a majority of pledged delegates prior to the Democratic convention (see Jeff Berman’s great new book, “The Magic Numb8r” for the whole story, at http://amzn.to/AvTIIF ), if he consistently beat his own staff projections in the 11 contests following Super Tuesday, which Obama did. By contrast, none of the delegate counters today, including Romney’s own campaign, can see a path for Romney to the 1144 delegates needed for a majority of delegates by the end of the caucus and primary season, even though Romney will have a plurality of delegates, short of a majority, when the caucuses and primaries are complete.
In 2008, Obama and the Democratic Party Establishment blocked Clinton from carrying her campaign to the Denver convention, in part because Obama had the moral high ground for having demonstrated he would win an absolute majority of pledged delegates prior to the convention. Will Romney and his supporters in the Republican Establishment be able to clear the field before the 2012 Republican convention in Tampa this August if Romney lacks any credible path to winning a majority of delegates?
In 2008, Obama and the Democratic Party Establishment blocked Clinton from carrying her campaign to the Denver convention, in part because Obama had the moral high ground for having demonstrated he would win an absolute majority of pledged delegates prior to the convention. Will Romney and his supporters in the Republican Establishment be able to clear the field before the 2012 Republican convention in Tampa this August if Romney lacks any credible path to winning a majority of delegates?
Economist/YouGov poll archives can be found here
Photo source: Press Association
