Democratic President Barack Obama holds a nominal two-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Wisconsin, with Obama 48% to Romney’s 46%, in a poll of 804 registered voters statewide, conducted by YouGov.
Partisan loyalty is stronger on the Democratic side, with 94% of Democrats sticking with Obama compared to 88% of Republicans favoring Romney.
Independents are split in favor of Romney, at 49%-41%.
Women in Wisconsin tend to favor Obama (51%-45%), while men favor Romney (47%-44%).
Romney leads in three of the five Wisconsin regions: the Northwest (56%-41%), Southeast (52%-40%) and Northeast (47%-42%).
Conversely, Obama has very strong leads in Milwaukee County and the Southwest (64%-33% and 60%-35%, respectively).
The oldest age group (65+) in Wisconsin strongly favors Romney, at 61% to 36%. Interestingly, voters age 30-44 favor Obama more strongly in Wisconsin than the youngest voters under age 30 (54%-38%, and 47%-46% respectively).
Republican Senate candidate Tommy Thompson holds a six-point lead over the Democratic candidate Tammy Baldwin, 48% Thompson – 42% Baldwin.
In the Congressional vote, voters in Wisconsin favor Republican candidates for the U.S. House, with 46% intending to vote for Republican candidates in their district, and 41% for Democratic. The poll was conducted online September 7-14, 2012.
Sampling method: Respondents were selected from YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.
Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.
Number of respondents: 804 registered voters statewide.
Margin of error ± 4.5% (adjusted for weighting)
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