President Barack Obama holds a slim four point lead over Republican Mitt Romney in Virginia, 48% Obama to 44% Romney, in a poll of 1,121 voters statewide, conducted by YouGov.
Partisan loyalty is strong on both sides, with 95% of Democrats intending to vote for Obama and 92% of Republicans voting for Romney.
Independents are divided, with 45% for Romney and 39% for Obama.
Women favor Obama by 53%-39%, while men favor Romney by 49%-42%.
Obama has particularly strong support in the DC Suburbs (57%-35%) and the Northern Virginia Exurbs (52%-39%). He leads Romney in Tidewater (51%-40%).
Romney leads in the Central/West region (56%-35%).
The oldest voters age 65+ favor Romney (64%-30%). The youngest under age 30 favor Obama (63%-29%).
The Democratic candidate for the Senate, Tim Kaine, leads Republican George Allen by the slimmest of margins (43%-42%).
Voters in Virginia favor the Republican candidate for the U.S. House, with 45% intending to vote for the Republican candidate for the House in their district, and 37% for the Democrat. The poll was conducted online September 7-14, 2012.
Sampling method: Respondents were selected from the YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.
Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.
Number of respondents: 1,121 registered voters statewide.
Margin of error + 3.27% (adjusted for weighting).
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