Republicans More Enthusiastic To Vote Than Democrats, But Not Where It Counts

It is commonly assumed that Barack Obama will not benefit from as much voter enthusiasm in 2012 as his candidacy generated in 2008. And while Mitt Romney will not benefit from the enthusiasm that helped propel the Republicans to historic victories in the 2010 midterm elections, there is some evidence that Republicans are somewhat more enthusiastic about the 2012 election than Democrats, for example from Gallup. The party who is able to more effectively mobilize their core supporters to come to the polls in 2012 is likely to have an advantage in winning both the presidential and the down-ballot elections.

We asked a nationally-representative YouGov sample of 775 panel participants who are registered voters, “Thinking about the upcoming presidential election to be held in November 2012, how enthusiastic are you to vote?” with response categories “Not at all enthusiastic,” “Not too enthusiastic,” “Somewhat enthusiastic,” “Very enthusiastic,” and “Extremely enthusiastic.” This question was asked in the days following the Democratic Convention (from September 8 to September 10). Overall, we found that 67.6 percent of registered voters were Extremely or Very Enthusiastic, 16.2 percent were Somewhat Enthusiastic, and 16.1 percent were Not Too or Not At All Enthusiastic. Similar to the Gallup result from June, we found that Republicans were slightly more enthusiastic to vote than Democrats, with 73 percent of Republicans Extremely or Very Enthusiastic to vote versus 71.6 percent of Democrats. Independents are less enthusiastic than partisans, with 58.3 percent Extremely or Very Enthusiastic.

But mobilization of core supporters is likely to be especially important to the presidential race in the closely-contested battleground states. In contrast to the overall numbers, there we find a greater advantage for President Obama. In the Table below we use the New York Times classification of toss-up states to define the battleground states (CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, OH, VA, and WI), and tabulate the enthusiasm separately by partisanship and residence in those states. In the battleground states, 86.4 percent of Democrats said they were Extremely or Very Enthusiastic to vote versus 73.1 percent of Republicans. Republicans hold a slight advantage in less crucial non-battleground states, 72.9 to 69.0. Independents are also somewhat more enthusiastic in the battleground states than in the non-battleground states, but still less excited to vote than partisans.

Enthusiasm To Vote In 2012 By Party And Battleground Residence

Whether these results are part of the “convention bounce” for President Obama and will fade as time passes requires future polling. But for now, it appears that the Obama campaign has an enthusiasm advantage, rather than gap, in those states where turnout is likely of the greatest concern. Of course, there are still seven weeks until Election Day, meaning there is ample time for the Romney campaign to close the enthusiasm gap in battleground states, and for both parties to attempt to excite Independents... and ultimately turn that enthusiasm into votes on Election Day.