October 16, 2012, 7:00 PM GMT+0

Republican challenger Mitt Romney gets a majority of the votes of likely voters over Democratic President Barack Obama in Arizona, 52% Romney to 43% Obama, in a YouGov poll of 469 likely voters statewide (recontacted from an initial September poll).

In Arizona (Oct 4-11):

Arizona’s Democrats demonstrate strong partisan loyalties, with 93% of Democrats sticking with Obama, and 88% of Republicans voting for Romney.

Romney easily wins the majority of the vote among likely voters who are Independents, 61% Romney-29% Obama.

Women favor Obama by a 53%-43% margin, while men favor the challenger, 61% Romney-33% Obama.

Obama leads in Pima County (Tucson), enjoying an 51%-40% lead there among likely voters, and Romney leads by a similar, mirror-image margin in Maricopa County (Phoenix) 52% Romney-45% Obama. It is no contest in the rest of the state of Arizona, 62% Romney-32% Obama.

The oldest likely voters age 65+ favor Romney by about 2-to-1 over Obama (62% Romney-32% Obama), and Romney also leads among Arizona’s Baby Boomers by a similar margin (65% Romney-32% Obama). The two are tied (48%-48%) among those age 30-44, but Obama wins overwhelmingly among the youngest likely voters in Arizona.

Romney has only widened what was already a huge lead among Arizona likely voters who are Independents, rising from a strong 59%-31% lead in September with this key swing group to an even stronger 61%-29% among these same Independent likely voters today.

Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Barack Obama





Mitt Romney





Republican Jeff Flake leads Democrat Richard Carmona, 44%-38%, little-changed from Flake’s 44%-37% lead among these same likely voters in September, but with many still undecided.

In the race for U.S. Representative for their Congressional districts, it’s all Republican, with 47% intending to vote for the Republican candidate for the House in their district, and 35% for the Democrat. The poll was conducted October 4-11.

Sampling method: Respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Respondents were recontacted on October 4-11 for the second wave of the YouGov poll. The percentage of likely voters who were successfully recontacted was 75.8%.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 469 likely voters.

Margin of error ±5.4% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).