October 16, 2012, 7:00 PM GMT+0

Republican challenger Mitt Romney gets a majority of the votes of likely voters over Democratic President Barack Obama in Missouri, 52% Romney to 42% Obama, in a YouGov poll of 546 likely voters from the Show Me state (recontacted from an initial September poll).

In Missouri (Oct 4-11):

Missouri’s likely voters are very strong partisans, with 97% of Democrats sticking with Obama, and 96% of Republicans voting for Romney.

Romney has a strong lead among likely voters who are Independents, 52% Romney-36% Obama.

Women in Missouri slightly favor the incumbent, 51% Obama-45% Romney, while men favor the challenger, 59%-35%.

Romney leads in east central Missouri, 60% Romney-32% Obama, and in the south, 62%-32%. Romney holds a somewhat narrow lead in the north, 54%-40%. Obama leads handily in St. Louis City and County, 60%-34%, but the race in the Kansas City area is essentially a tie, 50% Romney-49% Obama.

The oldest likely voters in Missouri age 65+ favor Romney over Obama by 2-to-1 (64% Romney-32% Obama), and Romney also leads among Missouri’s Baby Boomers, but by a narrower 52%-40% margin, and among likely voters age 30-44, 54%-42%. Obama leads by a 2-to-1 margin among the youngest likely voters under age 30.

Romney maintains a solid, double-digit lean among Missouri likely voters who are Independents, where Romney was leading 54%-37% in September with this key swing group, and Romney leads, 52%-36% among these same Independent likely voters today.

Net Change in Voter Intention:

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Barack Obama





Mitt Romney





Incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill holds a narrow 47%-42% lead over Republican challenger Todd Akin. In the Governor’s race, incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Nixon holds an 18-point lead over Republican challenger Dave Spence, 54%-36%.

In the race for U.S. Representative for their Congressional districts, 50% intend to vote for the Republican candidate for the House in their district, and 35% for the Democrat. The poll was conducted October 4-11.

Sampling method: Respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Respondents were recontacted on October 4-11 for the second wave of the YouGov poll. The percentage of likely voters who were successfully recontacted was 74.9%.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 546 likely voters. Margin of error ±4.9% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results

Click here for October 4-11 results