November 04, 2012, 4:30 PM GMT+0

Republican challenger Mitt Romney holds an 8-point lead over President Barack Obama in Arizona, 52% Romney to 44% Obama, in a YouGov poll of 702 likely voters statewide.

In Arizona (Oct 31-November 3):

Independents strongly support Mitt Romney, 55% for Romney and 36% for Obama, however they have moved towards Obama since early October.

Romney leads in Maricopa County (52%-43%), while Obama leads in Pima County (52%-42%). Romney has a strong lead in the rest of the state (56%-39%).

Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Oct 31-

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Oct 31-

Barack Obama







Mitt Romney







Republican Jeff Flake leads Democrat Richard Carmona, 49%-42%, an increase from Flake’s 44%-38% lead in early October

Sampling method: Respondents were selected using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2010 American Community Survey. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the Registration and Voting Supplements of the 2008 and 2010 Current Population Surveys and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Some respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov¹s panel, then recontacted on October 4-11 and again on October 31-November 3. Others were selected for the first time on October 31-November 3.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 702 likely voters. Margin of error ±4.1% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).

Click here for October 31-November 3 results (likely voters).