Vice President Kamala Harris was suddenly elevated to Democrats' most likely nominee for president after President Joe Biden's decision on Sunday to leave the race and endorse her as his replacement. In a snap poll just after the announcement, 60% of Democrats say they want Harris to become the nominee, while 21% say they want someone else. A majority of Democrats believe she is very likely to become the nominee, and half say she is more qualified than previous Democratic nominees.
In the two days leading up to Biden's announcement, we asked Americans how they think Harris compares to Republican nominee Donald Trump, as well as the process of selecting a new nominee and their expectations regarding women and the presidency. This July 19 - 21 YouGov survey was completed shortly before Biden's announcement about stepping down.
Compared to Trump, Harris is viewed by somewhat more Americans as compassionate and honest, but also as less effective. Trump, on the other hand, is more likely to be viewed as more charismatic and a stronger leader than Harris, though is also seen as more arrogant, opportunistic, and reckless. In terms of policy, Harris' perceived strengths relative to Trump include her handling of LGBTQ issues, abortion, and the environment. More would prefer Trump to Harris for handling immigration, inflation, crime, and foreign policy.
How Harris compares to other major Democrats
A poll conducted the day after Biden's announcement found Democrats rallying around Harris. Half of Democrats say they'd prefer for Harris to be nominated without facing a challenge, while 25% say they want other Democrats to challenge her. By a similar margin, Democrats say that Harris going uncontested would most improve Democrats' chances of winning.
Harris is much better known among Democrats than are other potential nominees. Behind her, the next most well-known are Gavin Newsom, Cory Booker, and Pete Buttigieg. In the next tier are Amy Klobuchar and Gretchen Whitmer. Very few say they are familiar with JB Pritzker, Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear, or Jared Polis.
Polling from earlier this month found that more Democrats approved of Harris as a potential replacement for Biden than approved of more than a dozen other Democrats. And more thought she was likely to win against Trump than said the same about all but one of the other prospects — Michelle Obama, who repeatedly has said she isn't running.
Personal qualities of Harris and Trump
What do Americans see as Harris' and Trump's strengths and weaknesses? Views break down mostly along partisan lines, though Trump leads Harris in both good qualities and bad ones.
Among positive qualities asked about, Trump is seen as more charismatic than Harris (Americans are 27 percentage points likelier to say this of Trump than of Harris), and more of a strong leader (+19). Harris is seen as more compassionate (+9) and honest (+8) than Trump. About equal shares of Americans say Harris and Trump are more intelligent, competent, likable, and qualified.
As for negative qualities, far more describe Trump than Harris as arrogant (+32), opportunistic (+23), and reckless (-23). More also say that relative to Harris, Trump is more divisive (+15), corrupt (+14), dishonest (+12), hypocritical (+10), and insincere (+6). Harris is seen as more ineffective than Trump (+11).
The differences on many of the traits are minor and predictably polarized: Members of each party are more likely to say positive things about their own candidate — or presumed candidate — and negative things about the other party's.
Issue handling by Harris and Trump
How would Harris and Trump compare when it comes to handling important issues? More Americans expect that Harris would do a better job than Trump at handling LGBTQ issues (+21), abortion (+12), and the environment (+11). Trump is seen as better than Harris at handling immigration (+15), inflation (+14) — the two issues most likely to be named Americans' most important — crime (+12), and foreign policy (+12).
On most issues, Harris performs similarly against Trump as Biden did on a poll earlier this month. When it comes to abortion, however, Harris does somewhat better against Trump (+12) than Biden did (+5).
Vote intention
One question on most observers' minds is how Harris would perform against Trump on the ballot. Questions about vote intention do provide useful insights, but can only tell us what people say now — they're not exact indicators of future behavior. Since Harris has only recently become the party's presumptive nominee, opinions on her may be especially volatile as Americans get to know her better.
Polling conducted before Biden's exit finds Harris would perform similarly to Biden in head-to-head match-ups against Republican nominee Donald Trump, with Trump leading both Democrats narrowly.
In the latest Economist/YouGov poll, Trump led Harris by 5 percentage points (44% to 39%) among registered voters, which is slightly more than the 2 points by which he led Biden (43% to 41%). In the previous week's poll, Harris was down 4 points against Trump, while Biden trailed by 3.
While more Americans still expect Trump to win than Harris, Democrats have grown more confident in Harris' chances of beating Trump. Seven months ago, just under half of Democrats (47%) predicted that Harris would beat Trump in a head-to-head race. Just after Biden's decision to step down, 66% of Democrats predicted she would win against him.
Women and the presidency
If Kamala Harris secures the Democratic nomination and wins the race against Trump, she would be the first woman to hold the nation's highest office. This is something that many Democrats hope for: 85% of Democrats want a woman to be elected president during their lifetime. But slightly fewer — 72% — think America is ready for a woman president.
Democrats think a man running for president would do better than a woman among Democratic voters — and that a woman would do better with a man as her vice presidential running mate than with a woman. More Democrats believe that all or most members of their party would vote for a nominee from their party who is a man (77%) than would vote for a woman (55%).
If the nominee were a man, Democrats believe that Democratic voters would be about as likely to vote for them regardless of whether their vice presidential running mate was a man (72%) or a woman (74%). But if the presidential nominee is a woman, more Democrats are confident that members of their party would vote for her if her running mate is a man (63%) than a woman (49%).
Compared to Democrats, Republicans think that voters from their party are even less likely to vote for presidential tickets with one or more women — which might partially reflect that their ticket had already been set with two men by the time the survey was fielded.
Next steps in the nomination process
Before Biden's announcement, Democrats and Republicans reported having vastly different feelings about their party's presidential nomination process this year.
Half of Democrats described themselves as worried, and slightly fewer as anxious. About one-quarter say they are exhausted, and a similar share say they are disappointed.
Half of Republicans, on the other hand, are optimistic about their party's nomination process — which led to the selection of Trump as candidate — while nearly half say they're confident and almost as many say they're excited.
The survey conducted just before Biden's decision asked Democrats about six hypothetical scenarios that could play out if he were to step aside. Majorities of Democrats supported four of them and the other two got more approval than disapproval. Nearly three-quarters strongly or somewhat approved of Harris automatically becoming the new nominee (73%) and about as many supported Biden personally endorsing a new nominee and instructing his delegates to vote for them (72%).
Narrow majorities wanted the party to hold a special primary election to select a new nominee (56%) and to have a brief campaign period before the convention, during which prospective candidates try to win over delegates (54%). The smallest share — 43% — approved of a free-for-all scenario in which Democratic delegates select a new candidate at the convention, without specific guidance.
Related:
- Snap poll: Most Americans approve of Biden ending his re-election campaign
- If Biden steps aside, whom Democrats would want to replace him — and how
- How views of Biden and Trump changed after the first debate
- Snap post-debate poll: 30% of Democrats say 'someone else' would be a stronger candidate than Biden
— Carl Bialik contributed to this article
See the results for this YouGov poll
Methodology: This poll was conducted online on July 19 - 21, 2024 among 1,123 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 4%.
Image: Getty
