The second release of YouGov's model estimating every 2024 U.S. Senate election and U.S. House elections in each congressional district shows Republicans maintaining a slight edge to control the Senate, and Democrats a slim favorite to win the House. Each outcome would be a reversal of the current Congress.
YouGov's Senate model gives Republicans edges in 13 seats on the ballot, and they hold 38 seats not on the ballot, which would give them 51 seats. Democrats or Independents who caucus with Democrats have advantages in 20 seats on the ballot, and they hold 28 seats not on the ballot, for a total of 48. We rate one seat, in Ohio, as a tossup.
Besides the tossup race, seven seats remain close: four that lean Democratic, and three that lean Republican.
This is little-changed from the September 23 release, which showed Republicans on track for 51 seats and Democrats for 47.
YouGov simulated each of the 435 House races 3,000 times. In 62% of those simulations, Democrats won a majority of seats — at least 218. In the median simulation, Democrats won 220 seats.
The Senate and House models are based on nearly 100,000 interviews from YouGov’s U.S. panel conducted through October 15 as part of the SAY24 project, a collaboration between Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale Universities.
Explore more on each Senate race in the table below:
More information on the methodology
Image: Getty (Win McNamee)
