A guide to the methodology behind YouGov's use of multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) to project how Americans will vote in the 2024 election.

YouGov shows Republicans with a slight edge to control the Senate, and Democrats more likely than not to control the House. This would be a reversal from the current Congress, in which Democrats control the Senate and Republicans control the House.

We have Harris leading in 23 states and Washington D.C. with 256 electoral votes and Trump leading in 25 states with 235 electoral votes.

YouGov estimates of public opinion on abortion show that support for legal abortion in most or all cases is above 50% in many states that have recently tightened rules on abortion or are considering it.

Doug Rivers and Delia Bailey provide details of how YouGov's MRP model works and what the results show for the 2020 U.S. presidential election.