The third and final release of YouGov's model estimating every 2024 U.S. Senate election and U.S. House elections in each congressional district shows Republicans taking the Senate by a narrow margin, and Democrats gaining control of the House by an even smaller margin. Each outcome would be a reversal of the current Congress.
YouGov's Senate model gives Republicans edges in 13 seats on the ballot, and they hold 38 seats not on the ballot, which would give them 51 seats. Democrats or Independents who caucus with Democrats have advantages in 20 seats on the ballot, and they hold 28 seats not on the ballot, for a total of 48. We rate one race as a tossup: the Ohio race between Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and Republican Bernie Moreno.
Besides the tossup race in Ohio, seven other Senate seats remain close: four that lean Democratic and three that lean Republican.
This is in line with the October 16 release, which showed Republicans on track for 51 seats and Democrats for 48, but shows a slightly closer contest than the September 23 release, which showed Republicans on track for 51 seats and Democrats for 47.
For its House projections, YouGov simulated each of the House races 5,000 times. In 58% of those simulations, Democrats won a majority of seats — at least 218. In the median simulation, Democrats won 219 seats.
The Senate and House models are based on more than 55,000 interviews from YouGov’s U.S. panel conducted through October 31 as part of the SAY24 project, a collaboration between Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale Universities.
Explore more on each Senate race in the table below:
More information on the methodology
Image: Getty (Win McNamee)
