This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers the election's aftermath, Donald Trump's policy proposals, his leading advisors, how his win has shifted perceptions, and the outlook for electing a woman as president.
Election aftermath
- Both Kamala Harris voters and Donald Trump voters are most likely to say that inflation and the state of the economy was the factor most important to the election outcome, among more than a dozen asked about
- Trump voters also cite immigration and the Trump campaign as among the most important factors in the election's outcome
- Harris voters also point to misinformation, racism and/or sexism, and the influence of billionaires as among the most important factors in the election's outcome
- 24% of Harris voters say Joe Biden is more to blame for Harris' loss to Trump, while only 6% blame Harris more; a majority (53%) say this was just a bad year for Democrats
- Only 38% of Americans approve of Biden’s job performance, near his all-time low; 56% disapprove
- Among issues polled about, Biden scores best on health care (46% approve of his handling of the issue) and climate change and the environment (44%)
Trump's plans
- Nearly half (47%) of Americans — including 21% of Harris voters and 86% of Trump voters — expect Trump to accomplish more in his second term than in his first term; 16% expect he will accomplish less
- About half (49%) expect Trump will try to keep most or all of his campaign promises; fewer (39%) say he will be able to keep most or all of them
- Trump's plan to end taxes on tips is supported strongly or somewhat by majorities of his voters and Harris voters
- On the other hand, Trump's proposal to take away the broadcast licenses of media that are critical of him is opposed by majorities of his voters and Harris voters
- Several other Trump campaign proposals asked about in the poll — deporting thousands of illegal immigrants, placing tariffs on most imported goods, and pardoning those participating in the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol — are far more popular among Trump voters than among Harris voters
- Majorities say Trump will fulfill his promises to deport illegal immigrants, raise tariffs, and pardon the January 6 participants
- Less than half (46%) of Americans say Trump will eliminate taxes on tips, and only 30% expect he will revoke broadcast licenses of media organizations that criticize him
Trump advisors
- About half (52%) of Americans expect Elon Musk will have a lot of influence on the Trump administration, though only 27% say Musk should have a lot of influence
- 27% think Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. will have a lot of influence, but just 19% think he should, including 7% of Harris voters and 36% of Trump voters
- Among Trump voters, more believe Vice President-elect JD Vance will have a lot of influence than think Musk will (67% vs. 56%), and more believe Vance should have a lot of influence than say Musk should (68% vs. 51%)
- Even though only about one-third of Trump voters want Kennedy to have a lot of influence in the White House, 79% have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Kennedy
- Even more Trump voters have favorable views of Musk (88%) and Vance (91%)
Trump's win changes views
- Trump's win raised the spirits of some Trump voters; for example, while last month only 25% of Trump supporters were somewhat or completely satisfied with the way democracy was working in the U.S., now 51% of Trump voters are satisfied
- Last month, 44% of Harris supporters said they were satisfied; now 33% of Harris voters say so
- Trump voters — many of whom had been negative about the economy and the future — are now more likely to be bullish: They still see things as in poor shape, but expect improvements
- 61% of Trump voters say their family’s financial situation got worse in the last year and only 7% say it got better; 64% expect a year from now it will be better and only 6% say it will be worse
- 21% of Harris voters say their family’s financial situation had gotten worse in the last year while 28% say it got better; 36% believe it will be worse 12 months from now and only 21% think it will be better
- Majorities of Trump voters now expect that in six months each of the following will be lower: the rate of inflation (71%), gas prices (68%), and interest rates (66%)
- October surveys found few Trump supporters expected these indicators would be lower in six months
- Pluralities of Harris voters expect the three economic indicators polled about will be higher in six months
Electing a woman president
- In May 2015, when Hillary Clinton was preparing for her 2016 campaign for president, by 61% to 21% Americans said they believed the country was ready to elect a woman president
- Now, a week after Harris' election loss, only 46% say the country is ready to elect a woman as president; 37% say it isn't
- Women are more likely than men to say the country is not ready to elect a woman as president (41% vs. 33%)
- There is little difference between Harris voters and Trump voters in their perceptions of the readiness of the country to elect a woman as president, though last month, 88% of Harris supporters said the country was ready, compared to 38% of Trump supporters
- By 56% to 20%, Americans say they hope there will be a woman elected president in their lifetime; 60% of women and 53% of men hope to live to see a woman be elected president
- 88% of Democrats but only 26% of Republicans say they are hoping there will be a woman elected president in their lifetime
Throughout this report, some numbers may appear to be off by 1 because of rounding
— Carl Bialik and Taylor Orth contributed to this article
See the toplines and crosstabs for the November 9 - 12, 2024 Economist/YouGov Poll
Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,743 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%
Image: Getty (Anna Moneymaker / Staff)
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