This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers the state of the Democratic and Republican parties, potential 2028 presidential candidates, views on abortion, Social Security, and DEI, reactions to a leak of military plans by Trump administration officials, and the data behind Trump's stable job approval numbers.
The state of the parties
- Among all Americans, net favorability of the Democratic Party is far lower than that of the Republican Party (-28 vs. -11); net favorability is calculated by subtracting the percentage of Americans who view them very or somewhat unfavorably from the percentage who view them very or somewhat favorably
- Similarly, net favorability of Democrats in Congress is far lower than that of Republicans in Congress (-29 vs. -13)
- Americans' aggregate views are similar about Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson (-9), Republican Senate Leader John Thune (-10), and Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries (-11). Democratic Senate Leader Chuck Schumer is viewed far more negatively (-33)
- More Americans say they are upset or dissatisfied with Democratic politicians who currently hold office than say the same about Republican politicians in office (58% vs. 49%)
- 53% of Democrats say they are enthusiastic or satisfied with the Democratic Party's politicians, compared to 76% of Republicans who say the same about their party's politicians
- Many Americans think at least one of the parties is too ideologically extreme: 46% say the Democratic Party is too liberal, and 41% think the Republican Party is too conservative; 12% say both are too extreme
- Majorities of Democrats and Republicans think their own party is about right ideologically, and that the opposing party is too extreme
- Americans are twice as likely to describe the Democratic Party as being more divided than united as to say it is more united (51% vs. 23%). The opposite is true for the Republican Party: 52% say it is more united and 23% say it is more divided
- Similar shares of Democrats describe the Democratic and Republican parties as more united or more divided. The vast majority of Republicans believe their party is more united, and most say the Democratic Party is more divided. Independents are far more likely to describe the Republican Party than the Democratic Party as more united than divided
- Americans generally are equally likely to view the Democratic Party as caring about Americans of various races, genders, and incomes. Between 48% and 58% say the Democratic Party cares a lot or some about the needs and problems of Americans who are each of the following: white, Black, Hispanic, men, women, wealthy, middle-class, and poor. But Americans are more likely to think the Democratic Party cares about the needs and problems of immigrants (67%) than about those of native-born Americans (53%)
- The Republican Party is more likely to be viewed as caring about several groups of Americans than about several others. Between 77% and 87% say it cares a lot or some about the needs and problems of Americans who are each of the following: wealthy, white, and men. 50% or fewer say the Republican Party cares a lot or some about Americans who are each of the following: middle-class, women, Black, Hispanic, or poor. And only 29% say the Republican Party cares a lot or some about the needs and problems of immigrants, compared to 70% who say it does about native-born Americans
Party issue positions
- On Social Security and abortion, Americans are more likely to hold positions that align with what they perceive to be the Democratic position — but on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) they're more likely to believe what they think the Republican Party does
- Most Americans (56%) want to increase funding for Social Security, and more believe this position is held by the Democratic Party than by the Republican Party (37% vs. 15%); 41% of Americans who want to increase funding think the Democratic Party wants the same thing and only 21% think the Republican Party does
- 7% of Americans would like for Social Security funding to be reduced, or for the program to be eliminated entirely; 14% believe the Democratic Party holds this position and 45% think the Republican Party does
- Americans' views on abortion are somewhat more aligned with what they perceive to be the Democratic Party's position than with their perception of the Republican Party's position.
- 58% of Americans believe that abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 35% believe it should be illegal in all or most cases
- 77% of Americans think the Democratic Party's position is that abortion should always or usually be legal, compared to 10% who believe the Republican Party holds this position
- Among the majority of Americans who think that abortion should be legal in all or most cases, 81% think the Democratic Party has the same position and only 12% think the Republican Party does
- Americans' positions on DEI programs are generally more aligned with their perceptions of the Republican Party's position than with that of the Democratic Party
- 38% of Americans think that funding for DEI programs should be reduced or eliminated, while 19% think it should be increased, and 25% think it should stay the same
- Among Americans who want DEI funding reduced or eliminated, 93% think the Republican Party has the same position and only 6% think the Democratic Party does
- Half (50%) of Americans think the Democratic Party wants to increase DEI funding, while 3% say the same about the Republican Party
- 6% think the Democratic Party wants to reduce or eliminate DEI funding, while 73% say the same about the Republican Party
A 2028 preview
- With November 2028 nearly four years away, Americans are somewhat more likely to expect a Republican victory in the next presidential election than a Democratic win (36% vs. 30%)
- Democrats and Republicans have different priorities for a 2028 presidential candidate
- Democrats are more likely to say it's more important to nominate someone who can win the general election than say it's more important to nominate someone who agrees with their positions on most issues (58% vs. 42%)
- Republicans, on the other hand, are less likely to prioritize electability than they are to prioritize policy alignment (38% vs. 62%)
- The latest Economist/YouGov survey asked Democrats and Republicans about potential 2028 presidential candidates. The lists of 10 names for each party were based on which politicians members of each party were most likely to say they'd consider, according to another recent poll that asked about longer lists
- Kamala Harris (58%) is the politician among a list of 10 in the poll whom Democrats are by far most likely to say they'd consider voting for in a 2028 Democratic presidential primary. Harris is followed by Pete Buttigieg (39%), Tim Walz (38%), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (38%), Bernie Sanders (36%), and Elizabeth Warren (33%). Less than one-third say they'd consider each of Cory Booker (27%), Gretchen Whitmer (25%), and Mark Kelly (23%). Respondents were asked to select all that apply
- Harris is also named by the most Democrats as their ideal 2028 nominee, among the 10 options on the poll: 29% choose Harris, followed by 9% for Buttigieg, 8% for Newsom, 7% for Ocasio-Cortez, and 6% for Sanders. Each of the five other options are the top choice of less than 5% of Democrats
- Among Republicans, by far the largest share say JD Vance (69%) is someone they would consider voting for in the 2028 Republican presidential primary, among 10 options in the poll; respondents could select all that apply. Vance is followed by Ron DeSantis (42%), Donald Trump, Jr. (39%), Marco Rubio (34%), and Ted Cruz (33%). One-quarter or less said they'd consider each of Vivek Ramaswamy (25%), Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (24%), Tulsi Gabbard (22%), Tim Scott (20%), and Nikki Haley (12%)
- Vance is the top choice of 44% of Republicans; 12% choose Trump, Jr. and 9% choose DeSantis. Far less Republicans (4% or less) name each of the other options as their ideal candidate
- While Trump recently floated the idea of serving a third term, we limited our list of potential candidates to those who are currently eligible to run. Another YouGov survey conducted earlier this week found that 56% of U.S. adults believe Trump will definitely or probably attempt to serve a third term, and that 20% say he should definitely or probably be allowed to serve one
Signal leak
- 77% of Americans — including 81% of Democrats and 75% of Republicans — say they've heard at least something about senior members of the Trump administration using Signal to discuss sensitive military plans in Yemen, and inadvertently including a journalist in their group chat
- 68% of Americans say the Trump administration leak is a very or somewhat serious problem. In 2022, 62% said the same thing about Hillary Clinton using a personal email address to conduct government business while working as Secretary of State, while 58% said so about Trump taking classified material with him to Florida after leaving office
- About half (51%) of Americans say the Trump administration's recent actions jeopardized national security. Slightly fewer said so about Trump's actions in 2017 (47%) — following news that he potentially had improper dealings with Russia — and in 2019 (46%), after he threatened to withhold aid from Ukraine. Also in 2017, 46% said Clinton had jeopardized national security by using a private email server as Secretary of State
- 36% of Americans say it was illegal for Trump administration officials to discuss sensitive military plans using Signal and 41% say it was inappropriate, but not illegal; 7% say it was appropriate
- 32% say it was illegal for Trump administrations to have inadvertently included a journalist in their group chat about sensitive military plans and 50% say it was inappropriate, but not illegal; 3% say it was appropriate
- Majorities of Americans place a little or a lot of the blame for the leak on National Security Adviser Mike Waltz (68%), Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (64%), Vice President JD Vance (59%), and President Donald Trump (52%). Fewer blame Signal (33%) or Atlantic editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg (42%)
- Americans have net negative perceptions of Waltz (-16 net favorability), Hegseth (-12), Vance (-10), Trump (-7), and Goldberg (-5)
- More Americans believe that Trump administration officials involved in the Signal group chat should be replaced (44%) than think they should continue in their roles (30%)
- The Department of Justice has not said that it will open a criminal investigation into the Signal incident. 33% of Americans believe the Department of Justice is biased in favor of Donald Trump, 19% think it is biased against him, and 21% think it is unbiased
- Similar shares held the same views about the FBI's bias relating to Clinton in 2018, amid its investigation of her email practices — in other words, more thought the FBI was biased toward Clinton than against her
- The large majority of Americans (80%) think that government officials should be required to preserve important communications for official records. Far less (26%) believe Trump administration officials are doing so
Trump's stable approval
- Americans remain closely divided in their views of Donald Trump: This week slightly more U.S. adult citizens strongly or somewhat disapprove of Trump (49%) than approve (46%) — a net approval of -3
- That's a drop from last week, when Trump's net approval was +1
- It's a higher net approval than Trump had at this point in his first term (-7), and lower than Joe Biden had at this point in his term (+9)
- One reason Trump's approval rating is so closely divided and relatively steady is that almost all Democrats and Republicans have firmly decided views of Trump, as do Independents who lean toward either party — and 80% of Americans fall into those groups
- The remaining 20% of Americans who lean toward neither party have been more volatile: A drop in this group's net approval of Trump was primarily responsible for his overall decline this week
- But this group is significantly less likely than either Democrats or Republicans to follow the news about government and public affairs, so they may be less likely to change their views based on news events that they might not be learning much about
- This data is adapted from an analysis in the most recent issue of YouGov America's Substack newsletter, The Surveyor
- For more analysis of trends in Trump's approval, as well as YouGov polling on a range of political and non-political topics, subscribe to The Surveyor today!
— Carl Bialik contributed to this article
Throughout this report, some numbers may appear to be off by 1 because of rounding
See the toplines and crosstabs for the March 30 - April 1, 2025 Economist/YouGov Poll
Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,626 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given around November 8, 2024, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (31% Democratic, 32% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3.3%.
Image: Getty (Kent Nishimura / Stringer)
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