Head of Data Services, US

Recession fears are ticking slightly upward again. 

According to a new survey of 1,241 US adults, 27 percent of Americans – and nearly a third of registered voters (32%) – believe we’ll face an economic recession within the next year. 

That’s two points higher than last month (when 25 percent felt the same way) but falls short of the 29 percent peak recorded by YouGov’s monthly survey in August.

Consistent with past months, Democrats (47%) are far more likely than Republicans (13%) to believe a recession is on the way.

In October, 27 percent of US Adults believe that America will face an economic recession within the next year

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But prediction is one thing, preparedness is another. 

Americans show diminishing confidence when it comes to their preparedness to weather a recession, with four in 10 (40%) feeling very or somewhat prepared (down from 43% in August and 44% in September). 

Men (47%) are considerably more confident than women (35%) that they can weather an economic storm of this nature, but this confidence seems to have fallen somewhat this month (down from 52% in August and 53% last month). On the other hand, women show a remarkably consistent level of confidence, with an unswerving 35 percent over the last three months.

Millennial confidence, in particular, has ebbed. They seem less prepared for an economic downturn. Only a third (33%) believe they’re prepared for a recession, down from 37 percent last month and 41 percent in August.

As in past months, Americans are far less confident that the country as a whole is ready to face a recession (24 percent, down from 27 percent last month). Politics do encroach here, with Republicans (42%) more than twice as likely as Democrats (20%) to say the country is prepared. Independents show similar pessimism: only 18 percent say the country is prepared.

Executive Influence

Consistent with last month, 46 percent of Americans believe President Donald Trump’s economic policies are making a recession more likely while 26 percent feel his policies are making a recession less likely. This shifts to 49 percent and 29 percent, respectively, among registered voters. Unsurprisingly, the partisan split remains consistent with last month (and with expectations, for that matter).

Three-fourths of Democrats (75%) say the president’s policies are making a recession more likely, with over half (53%) specifying that his policies are making it much more likely. Only 8 percent of Dems feel Trump’s economic policies are making a recession less likely.

Flipping the script somewhat, 54 percent of Republicans believe the president’s economic policies are making a recession less likely while two in 10 (20%) believe his policies are making this more likely.

Independents again split the difference, with just over four in 10 (41%) saying President Trump’s economic policies are making a recession more likely; three in 10  (30%) indicate that his policies are making this less likely.

Related: These are the safest financial investments, according to Americans

Look at the economic trend data from October and September

Image: Getty

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