Trends Favor Republicans in Florida

November 01, 2010, 1:23 AM GMT+0

Republican Rick Scott may be overtaking Democrat Alex Sink in the race for Governor in Florida, moving from a 3 point deficit among likely voters earlier in the week (44% Sink - 41% Scott) earlier in the week to a dead heat among likely voters over the weekend, 45%-45%.  

In the Senate race, Republican nominee Marco Rubio is widening his lead over former Republican Charlie Crist who is running as an Independent. The Democratic nominee, Kendrick Meek cannot seem to break 15% support levels.  In the most recent poll the race stands at 46% Rubio, 34% Crist, 15% Meek.

  October 25-28, 2010 October 28-31, 2010
 Registered VotersLikely VotersRegistered VotersLikely Voters
Kendrick Meek 15% 18% 15% 15%
Marco Rubio 38% 42% 43% 46%
Charlie Crist 32% 31% 34% 34%
  October 25-28, 2010 October 28-31, 2010
 Registered VotersLikely VotersRegistered VotersLikely Voters
Alex Sink 43% 44% 42% 45%
Rick Scott 36% 41% 43% 45%

Crist captures most Democratic voters, while Rubio gains among Independents

Former Republican Charlie Crist, running as an Independent in the U.S. Senate race, has taken control of the Democratic vote from Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. Crist now leads among likely Democratic voters, 52% Crist - 34% Meek - 4% Rubio (compared to 40% Crist -- 41% Meek -- 5% Rubio earlier in the week).  At the same time, Rubio has made inroads among likely Independent voters, who now stand at 46% Crist - 36% Rubio - 13% Meek (compared with 52% Crist - 31% Rubio - 9% Meek earlier in the week).

The story in the less-well-publicized Gubernatorial race is simpler to tell. Undecided voters are making up their minds, yielding rapid growth in Democratic candidate Sink's lead among the small number of likely voters age 18-29 (Sink led over Scott among likely 18-29 year olds by 45%-33% earlier in the week, and by 67%-23% today), but at the same time, Republican Scott has wiped out Sink's lead among the much larger group of likely voters age 30-64  (Sink led over Scott among likely 30-64 year olds by 46%-38% earlier in the week, but they are tied at 43%-43% among the broad middle of the age ranges today).  That's enough for Scott to wipe out Sink's narrow lead overall.


Interviews with 1000 registered voters, including 826 likely voters, were conducted October 25-28, 2010,  and interviews with 700 registered voters, including 548 likely voters, were conducted October 28-31, 2010, online using YouGov's PollingPoint panel. YouGov uses a matched sample methodology that selects respondents to match the Florida registered voter population in terms of demographics (age, race, gender, education, employment status, income, marital status, children), past voting behavior, and political attitudes (interest in politics, party registration, and ideology).

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