The coronavirus outbreak and the Black Lives Matter movement are having a strong impact on the 2020 US presidential race, including in Michigan and Ohio, according to the latest CBS News/YouGov Poll.
Joe Biden currently leads President Donald Trump in Michigan (48% vs. 42%) and is virtually tied in Ohio (45% vs. 46%) among likely voters. A majority of Biden supporters in both states are mainly voting against Trump rather than for Biden. Seven in 10 (70%) of Michigan’s registered voters say they dislike how Trump handles himself personally.
In Michigan, 42 percent of registered voters say Trump has done a good job handling COVID-19, compared to 58 percent who say he has done a bad job. More than four in 10 ( 44%) of registered voters in Michigan say the Trump administration has hurt the states efforts to contain the pandemic. Forty four percent of voters in Michigan and 45 percent of Ohio voters say Trump’s presidency has so far been worse than expected.
The debate on whether schools should reopen in the fall is also seen in the polls. More than six in 10 (63%) of parents of school-aged children feel Biden cares a lot or at least some about COVID-19 risks to children, compared to 48 percent who feel Trump does.
Most Americans don’t think schools should reopen as normal. 46 percent of adults say schools should remain closed with at-home learning, compared to 34 percent who say schools should have limited reopening. If schools were to reopen, 32 percent of parents with school-aged children say they would send their kids, 31 percent say they would not, and 37 percent say they would wait and see.
Half (50%) of registered voters in Ohio say their states economy is bad, compared to 59 percent of Michigan voters. 62 percent of Americans say the condition of the national economy is bad.
President Trump is viewed as handling economic matters better in Ohio compared to Michigan. Nearly half ( 47%) of Michigan registered voters say Trump’s policies are helping economic recovery.About the same, 45 percent, of voters in Michigan say Biden’s policies would help. In Ohio, half (50%) of registered voters say Trump’s policies are helping, compared to 42 percent who say Biden’s policies would help.
A quarter (25%) of Michigan voters say Biden cares about their economic situation a lot, compared to 27 percent who say Trump cares a lot. In Ohio, 24 percent of voters say Biden cares about their economic situation a lot, compared to 30 percent who say Trump cares a lot.
Trump leads among white voters without college degrees, and in Ohio, voters see him as the better candidate to protect manufacturing jobs (52% vs. 48%).
Although President Trump continues to lead among white men, his lead is much narrower than in 2016. In Michigan, 52 percent of white men pick Trump over Biden in the trial heat, compared to 56 percent in Ohio. 52 percent of white men with no college degree pick Trump over Biden in Michigan, compared to 58% in Ohio.
In both Michigan (56% vs. 31%) and Ohio (55% vs. 34%), Biden leads among voters under the age of 45. Biden also has double-digit leads among white women with college degrees in both Michigan (54% vs. 38%) and Ohio (52% vs. 36%).
When asked what the focus of the Trump administration should be right now, voters in Michigan and Ohio said stopping the spread of COVID-19 and getting economic relief to people. 50 percent of voters in Michigan and 46 percent of voters in Ohio said addressing racial discrimination. Nationally, 58 percent of Americans agree with the ideas of the Black Lives Matter movement, compared to 41 percent who disagree. 44 percent of Americans approve of President Trump’s handling of recent protests, compared to 56 percent who disapprove. 61 percent say in dealing with protests in US cities, the federal government should leave it to local law enforcement. 39 percent of Americans say the federal government should get involved in dealing with the protests.
Methodology: Surveys were conducted on behalf of CBS News by YouGov between July 21-24, 2020. They are based on representative samples of 1,177 registered voters in Michigan and 1,227 in Ohio. Margins of error for registered voters: Michigan +/- 3.4 points, Ohio +/- 3.6 points. The national survey was conducted among a nationally representative sample of 2,008 U.S. adult residents. The margin of error for U.S. adults is 2.5 pts.