While there is some evidence in both the Wisconsin primary results and in the Economist/YouGov poll nationwide (Week of 3/31/2012) that Mitt Romney is beginning to heal the wounds in his party, there is equally strong evidence he has not yet begun to convince Americans he can defeat President Obama. Overall, the vote preference is close: 47% Obama – 44% Romney, a 3-point lead for the incumbent. When asked who they think will win, however, 53% think Obama will win – 42% Romney, a yawning 11-point chasm.
When it comes to vote preference, 85% of Democrats intend to vote for Obama, 85% of Republicans for Romney, and Independent voters split. When it comes to predicting the results in November, however, 86% of Democrats think Obama will win, but only 77% of Republicans think Romney will win.
Photo source: Press Association