Russian forces have gathered along Ukraine’s border in recent weeks, sparking concern that Russian President Vladimir Putin could be intending to invade the country. On Monday, the United States placed its own troops “on high alert” with the possibility of deployment alongside other NATO forces if Russia enters Ukraine by force.
A YouGov poll of more than 4,000 U.S. adults on Monday reveals that about half of Americans (47%) expect that Russia will invade Ukraine, with 38% unsure. Democrats (47%), Independents (50%), and Republicans (54%) are similarly likely to expect that Russia will attack.
Americans are split on whether the United States does (35%) or does not (33%) have a responsibility to protect Ukraine. Democrats (44%) are somewhat more likely than Republicans (36%) and Independents (31%) to say that protecting Ukraine is the U.S.’s responsibility.
If the conflict were to escalate to a war between the United States and Russia, few Americans believe that either side would emerge victorious. About one-quarter (26%) say the United States would win, compared to 10% who say Russia would. A greater share of Americans say neither side would win than name either country as a likely victory, with Independents especially likely (50%) to say a U.S.-Russia war would have no winner.
Explore these survey results below:
- Do you think Russia will invade Ukraine?
- Do you believe the U.S. does or does not have a responsibility to protect Ukraine from Russia?
- If the United States were to go to war against Russia, who do you think would win?
Methodology: This Daily Agenda survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 4,428 U.S. adults interviewed online on January 24, 2022. The samples were weighted to be representative of the U.S. population, based on gender, age, race, education, U.S. census region, and political party.