September 20, 2012, 1:00 PM GMT+0


Democratic President Barack Obama holds a nominal, two-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Florida, 48% Obama to 46% Romney, in a poll of 1,507 registered voters statewide, conducted by YouGov.

In Florida:

Partisan loyalty is strong on both sides, as 95% of Democrats are sticking with Obama and 91% of Republicans are voting for Romney.

Independents split, 45% for Obama and 45% for Romney.

Women favor Obama by 57%-38%, while men favor Romney by 55%-39%.

Obama leads in the greater Miami area in the south (58%-39%).

Romney leads in south central Florida (59%-37%).

The race is close in other regions such as the Panhandle (Obama leads, 48%-44%), and in the Central Atlantic Coast (Romney holds a nominal lead, 46%-45%), and the Tampa Bay area (Romney holds a nominal lead, 49%-47%).

The oldest voters age 65+ favor Romney (64%-34%). The youngest under age 30 favor Obama (71%-19%).

Incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson holds a very narrow, 44%-40% lead over Republican Senate challenger Connie Mack IV.

Voters in Florida are leaning decisively in favor of voting for Republican candidates for the U.S. House, with 48% intending to vote for the Republican candidate for the House in their district, and 36% for the Democrat.

Sampling method: Respondents were selected from YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 1,507 registered voters statewide.

Margin of error ± 3.6% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for a complete report of results