November 04, 2012, 4:30 PM GMT+0

Democratic President Barack Obama continues to hold a solid lead in Pennsylvania over Republican challenger Mitt Romney, 52% Obama to 44% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 1,273 likely voters statewide.

In Pennsylvania (Oct 31-Nov 3):

Romney is heavily favored among likely voter Independents 54%-41% over Obama.

Obama is the consensus choice in Philadelphia, enjoying an 80%-19% lead there among likely voters, and the President also holds a solid advantage in the Philadelphia suburbs (57% Obama-39% Romney), as well as in the west (52%-44%). Romney has a 51%-45% advantage over Obama in Northeast Pennsylvania, and Romney runs strongest in central Pennsylvania, 57% Romney-39% Obama.

Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Oct 31-

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Oct 31-

Barack Obama







Mitt Romney







Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. holds a 50%-42% lead over Republican Senate challenger Tom Smith.

The poll was conducted online October 31-November 3, 2012.

Sampling method: Respondents were selected using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2010 American Community Survey. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the Registration and Voting Supplements of the 2008 and 2010 Current Population Surveys and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Some respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov¹s panel, then recontacted on October 4-11 and again on October 31-November 3. Others were selected for the first time on October 31-November 3.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 1,273 likely voters. Margin of error ±3.3% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).

Click here for October 31-November 3 results (likely voters).