November 04, 2012, 4:30 PM GMT+0

Republican nominee for President Mitt Romney holds a nominal, 1-point lead over President Barack Obama in Florida, 48% Romney to 47% Obama, in a YouGov poll of 1,621 likely voters statewide.

In Florida (Oct 31-Nov 3):
Romney enjoys a wide lead among Florida likely voters who are Independents, 52% for Romney and 38% for Obama.  
Obama enjoys a solid 56%-41% advantage in Miami and South Florida. Romney leads big in south central Florida, 58% Romney-37% Obama, and Romney holds a marginal lead in the Panhandle (50%-45%), the central Atlantic coast (48%-45%), and in the Tampa area (50%-47%).
Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)
  Total Independents
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-
Nov 3
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-
Nov 3
Barack Obama 49% 48% 47% 44% 38% 38%
Mitt Romney 47% 47% 48% 48% 50% 52%

Incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson continues to hold a marginal 50%-44% lead over Republican Senate challenger Connie Mack IV. 

The poll was conducted online October 31-November 3, 2012

Sampling method: Respondents were selected using sample matching.  A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2010 American Community Survey. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the Registration and Voting Supplements of the 2008 and 2010 Current Population Surveys and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Some respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov¹s panel, then recontacted on October 4-11 and again on October 31-November 3.  Others were selected for the first time on October 31-November 3.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 1,621 likely voters. Margin of error ±3.0% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).

Click here for October 31-November 3 results (likely voters).